Question
Mr. Erdogan's unconventional monetary policy beliefs have been the main culprit behind the rising supply of the lira. The Turkish President has been a fan
"Mr. Erdogan's unconventional monetary policy beliefs have been the main culprit behind the rising supply of the lira. The Turkish President has been a fan of low interest rates, which he thinks is crucial to boosting economic growth and bringing down inflation. It should be noted that the central bank influences interest rates by regulating the money supply. To lower interest rates, it flushes the loan market with fresh money so that the price of bonds and other forms of debt increases (thus pushing down their yield). This in turn causes the overall money supply and hence prices to rise. Many economists do advocate the lowering of interest rates when they believe the economy is not operating at its full capacity. This is since they believe that prices are sticky downward and that the central bank can trick people into accepting lower real wages by devaluing the currency. But once an economy reaches its full capacity, economists argue, any further lowering of interest rates will only cause inflation. Mr. Erdogan, however, seems to believe that no amount of lowering of interest rates will cause prices to rise. In fact, he has argued that high interest rates are the reason prices in the economy rise as they add to costs. His regime also believes that low interest rates will bring down inflation by boosting growth which increases the supply of goods. So, according to Mr. Erdogan's logic, a central bank can print unlimited amounts of currency and still avoid hyperinflation by sufficiently boosting growth. Mr. Erdogan believes so much in the power of low interest rates that he has removed three central bank chiefs since 2019 because they tried to raise interest rates to boost the value of the lira. The current central bank chief has cut interest rates and has even gone on record to defend his decision to cut interest rates despite high inflation. Turkey's official data suggest that the country's inflation rate is at around 20% while unofficial estimates peg the inflation rate at 40%. ..... The Turkish President is expected to continue pushing for lower interest rates as he prepares to fight elections next year. It is generally believed that low interest rates boost the economy and make voters happy, although some economists do raise concerns about the sustainability of such artificial debt-fuelled growth. Lower interest rates are likely to lead to a further rise in the supply of liras in the market and cause a further drop in the currency's value. Many hope that Mr. Erdogan might have second thoughts on lowering interest rates as the lira continues to lose value rapidly, but that seems unlikely." a. Based on the above, use diagrams to elucidate the stance of monetary policy in Turkey and its impact on domestic prices, interest rates, exchange rates and income in the economy. b. Why are the President's monetary policy beliefs referred to as 'unconventional'? c. If you were to frame policy recommendations to address Turkey's rising inflation and government debt, what would you suggest and why? Use IS-LM and AS-AD diagrams to support your answer.
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