MS 207 DE Chapter 14 [End of Course] Critical Thinking Exercise Download this Word Document, Do the work on scratch paper as necessary, then type in your answers to the questions on the Word worksheet at page 2 [Please do not use your own format. When completed, save your work [pages 2 ff] as a Word Document and attach it to an e-mail to me at: aevans1@brenau.edu . This exercise asks you to use the logical, statistical and mathematical skills incorporated throughout the course. Asterisked items will each be assessed using the Brenau University Liberal Education Reasoning Rubric [also attached for your reference]. EXERCISE Month Revenue You own a small business. The table at right shows the gross 0 Jan $7,728.00 Income from your business for the first nine months of the year. Feb $7,870.00 Mar $8,920.00 A W NY These questions will deal with how you would use this information Apr $7,090.00 to make a projection for January of the next calendar year. May $8,510.00 5 Jun $9,160.00 PLEASE use the Word document at pages 2 and 3. Jul $7,730.00 Aug $9,380.00 NOTE: The Roman Numerals in front of each item ties the Sep $9720.00 9 item to one of the three areas evaluated with the Oct Rubric attached at the end of this document. 10 Nov 11 Dec 12 Jan ??MS 207 END-OF-COURSE CRITICAL THINKING EXERCISE [Complete and attach to an e-mail] 1. Determine if any of the monthly revenue values is a statistical outlier to the data set. a. [III] Select a statistical procedure to determine if the set of gross income figure contains an outlier. What procedure did you select? b. [III] What did you decide about an outlier in the data set? c. [III] If you found an outlier, should that value be included in projection calculations? d. [I] Enter the 5-number summary for the income data set. Min: 21: Median: Q3: Max: c. [I] Is there a Mode in the data set? d. [I] Compute the Mean of the income data set. 2. You now have the mean and the 5-number summary. a. [III] If you were to use one of these six statistics [5-number summary and mean] to predict the October gross revenue, which one would you use? b. [II] And why? 3. Now for a prediction about the January gross revenue estimate. Select a mathematical linear model for the data set, based on the 9-month data [suggest you use the past January as month zero]. a. [I] Name your variables with their symbols. b. [I] Write your linear equation: c. [I] Predict the revenue in the coming January [month 12 if you made the previous January your month zero in you calculations], using your linear equation. Continued next page.4. Which of the following Problem-Solving Strategies did you use in this process? a. [III] Circle or highlight the applicable ones. b. [II] And explain why and how [write your explanations below each selected strategy {s). Draw a Picture . Choose names for unknowns . Use an established system . Look for patterns . Simplify the problem . Start with an estimate . Relate this problem to earlier problems . Use the Order Principle . Analogy Principle . Three-Way Principle NEXT PAGE: Brenau University Liberal Education Reasoning Rubric