MTH301 Week 8

Homework

1.

Month	Sales
January	$450,000
February	$375,000
March	$425,000
April	$475,000
May	$375,000
June

1. Using a 2 month moving average what would be the sales forecast be for June
2. Using a 3 month moving average what would be the sales forecast be for June
3. Using a 4 month weighted average with the following weight (30% for the most recent period, 25%for the next period, 25% for the next period and 20% for the furthest period) What would the sales forecast be for the month of June

2.

TSV	Forecast	Error	Sq Error
71
70	71	-1.00	1
69
68
64

Using a= .1 for exponential smoothing, complete the above chart

What is the Forecast for period 6?

What is the sum of the squared errors?

What is the Mean Squared Error?

3.

Quarter	Year 1	Seasonal Index	Year 2	Seasonal Index	Average Index	Year 3
Fall	12,000	1.2	13,000	1.238	1.22	13,725
Winter	11,500		11,000
Spring	9,500		9,500
Summer	7,000		8,500
Total	40,000	X	42,000	X	X	45,000
Average	10,000	X	10,500	X	X	11,250

Fill in the above chart on seasonal averaging.

4. Here is the sales and profit data for a sporting goods company with 12 stores. Use the data to answer the regression problem #4.

Sales in $ millions	Profits in $ millions
7	.15
2	.10
6	.13
4	.15
14	.25
15	.27
16	.24
12	.20
14	.27
20	.44
15	.34
7	.17

1. What is the r value?
2. Do you consider the correlation strong?
3. What is the expected profit when sales are $10 million?