Multiple R 0.93 R Square 0. 86 Adjusted R Square 0.84 Standard Error 158.63 Observations 20 Coefficients Standard Error t-stat p-value Intercept 2. 6651 150.7574 9. 0177 9.9861 yt - 1 0.9748 0. 2420 4. 0279 0. 0009 yt - 2 0. 0860 0. 2741 0. 3136 0. 7576 When for AR(1), He: 60 = 0 is tested against HA: 60 # 0, the p-value of this t test shown in the output as 0.9590. This could suggest that the model yt = 61yt-1 + et might be an alternative to the AR(1) model yt = 60 + 61yt-1 + Et. Excel partial output for this simplified model is as follows. Model AR(1) simplified: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0. 99 R Square 0.99 Adjusted R Square 9. 94 Standard Error 148. 01 Observations 21 Coefficients Standard Error t-stat p-value Intercept N/A N/A N/A yt - 1 1. 0557 0. 0241 43. 7304 2. 5E -21 Compare the autoregressive models y+ = 60 + 61yt-1 + et;yt = 60 + 61yt-1 + 62yt-2 + Et, and yt = 61/t-1 + et, through the use of MSE and MAD