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need assistance with question 8-14 on data analysis and queuing models. the 1st attached is the questions. 2nd attachment is the answers, and the 3rd
need assistance with question 8-14 on data analysis and queuing models. the 1st attached is the questions. 2nd attachment is the answers, and the 3rd attachment is the spreadsheet it needs to go in. thank you
8-14 steve's Mountain Bicycle Shop is considering three options for its facility next year. Steve can expand his current shop, move to a larger facility, or make no change. With a good market, the annual payoff would be $76,000 if he expands, $90,000 if he moves, and $40,000 if he does nothing. With an average market, his payoffs will be $30,000, $41,000, and $15,000, respectively. With a poor market, his payoff will be - +17,000, - +28,000, and $4,000, respectively. (a) Which option should Steve choose if he uses the maximax criterion? (b) Which option should Steve choose if he uses the maximin criterion? (c) Which option should Steve choose if he uses the equally likely criterion? (d) Which option should Steve choose if he uses the criterion of realism with a = 0.4? (e) Which option should Steve choose if he uses the minimax regret criterion? Thompson Lumber (Dec Makin PAYOFF Alterna Large pl Small pl No plan Outcomes High Moderate Low demand demand demand $76,000 $30,000 -$17,000 $90,000 $41,000 -$28,000 $40,000 $15,000 $4,000 Maximax Max payoff $76,000 $90,000 $40,000 PAYOFF Alterna Large pl Small pl No plan Good Outcomes Fair Poor market market market $200,000 $100,000 -$120,000 $90,000 $50,000 -$20,000 $0 $0 $0 Hurwicz Realism payoff $24,000 $29,500 $0 a= REGRE High Outcomes Moderate Low Alterna demand demand demand Large pl $14,000 $11,000 $21,000 Small pl $0 $0 $32,000 No plan $50,000 $26,000 $0 Minimax Max regret $21,000 $32,000 $50,000 Maximin Choice Best Choice Best 0.45 Choice Best Min payoff -$17,000 -$28,000 $4,000 AverageEqually likely payoff $60,000 $40,000 $0 Maximin Choice Best Equally likely Choice Best Thompson Lumber (Dec Making Under Uncertainty) PAYOFFS Alternatives Large plant Small plant No plant PAYOFFS Alternatives Large plant Small plant No plant REGRET Alternatives Large plant Small plant No plant Outcomes Maximax Maximin High Moderate Low demand demand demand Max payoff Choice Min payoff Choice $76,000 $30,000 -$17,000 $76,000 -$17,000 $90,000 $41,000 -$28,000 $90,000 Best -$28,000 $40,000 $15,000 $4,000 $40,000 $4,000 Best Outcomes High Moderate Low demand demand demand $200,000 $100,000 -$120,000 $90,000 $50,000 -$20,000 $0 $0 $0 Outcomes Hurwicz Realism payoff Choice $24,000 $29,500 Best $0 a= 0.45 Minimax High Moderate Low demand demand demand Max regret Choice $14,000 $11,000 $21,000 $21,000 Best $0 $0 $32,000 $32,000 $50,000 $26,000 $0 $50,000 Equally likely Average payoff Choice $60,000 Best $40,000 $0 Expand his current shop Move to larger facility Make no change Good Market $ 76,000 $ 90,000 $ 40,000 A) Which option should Steve choose if he uses the maximax criterion? $ 90,000 B) Which option should Steve choose if he uses the maximin criterion? $ 4,000 C) Which option should Steve choose if he uses the equally likely criterion? Expected growth for current shop Expected growth for larger facility Expected growth for no change D) $ 29,666.67 $ 34,333.33 $ 19,666.67 Which option should Steve choose if he uses the criterion of realism with a = 0.4? Expected growth for current shop Expected growth for larger facility Expected growth for no change $ 20,200.00 $ 19,200.00 $ 18,400.00 Average Market $ 30,000 $ 41,000 $ 15,000 Poor market $ (17,000) $ (28,000) $ 4,000 Maximum $ 76,000 $ 90,000 $ 40,000 Minimum $ (17,000) $ (28,000) $ 4,000 (a) Conduct survey. If results are favorable, build large shop. If the results are unfavorable, don't build any shop. (b) EVSI = $11,000. EVwPI = $35,400. Best EMV = $19,000. EVPI = $16,400. Efficiency = 67.07% unfavorable, don't build any shop. fficiency = 67.07% see word doc Per hour Arrival rate Service rate Waiting time of trucks in Que in mins Total waiting time during a day in hours Cost of operating a truck/hr Total business cost Hiring cost/employee/hr Total hiring cost($) Machine Installation Cost($) 4 5 48 6.4 80 512 22 140.8 500 Hiring one more employee will solve the problem and the associated cost is $104.8 and the machine installation cost is $50 machine installation cost is $500. Hence, machine installation is not feasibleStep by Step Solution
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