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2. NPV/payback and simulation analysis For any investment decision, it is important for financlal managers to evaluate their risk exposures. There are several tools and techniques available to help financial decision makers evaluate project risk. The Net present value / Payback (NPV/PB) appreach Some managers use the combined net present value/payback (NpV/PB) approach, tn this approach, the managers might decide to project unless it has a positive net present value and a payback of than a certain stated number of years. Since a cutoff point in the payback period is used as a criterion in the NpY/PB approach, managers consider the approach to be extremely useful in: Projects in politically stable countries Projects in the high-tech sectar Simulation analysis Since there are limitations to the NPV/PB approach, some managers may want to use aitermative technicues to evaluate their project nisk. for larger. projects, some managers will employ a simulation analysis. Athough it is a very expensive technique, a simulation analysis helps financial managers evaluate project risk-that is, the probobility of project success or failure based on company benchmarks. 5uppose you are eyaluating the risk of two major investment projects for your business firm. After all preliminary calculations and simulation iterations, you've created a probabiuty distribution and computed the mean values for the two projects. You aiso have some data an the number of standard deviations (2), which tells you how far away a particular value of return or cash flow is from the expected value. standard deviations (z), which tells you how far away a particular value of return or cash flow is from the expected value. Suppose you base your investment decision on the projects' standard deviation. Which project seems riskier based on this criterion? ProjectYProjectX Aternatively, suppose you base your decision on the projects' coefficlent of variation. Which project seems riskier based on this criterion? Project Y Project X Based on your simulation results, what is the probability that project X will have a net present value of greater than $23,600 ? 10.03%14.69%16.68%6.06%