New City is considering building a recreation center. The estimated construction cost is $12 million with annual staffing and maintenance costs of $750,000 over the twenty year life of the project. At the end of the life of the project, New City expects to be able to sell the land for $4 million, though the amount could be as low as $2 million and as high as $5 million. Analysts estimate the first year benefits (accruing at the end of the year of the first year) to be $1.2 million. They expect the annual benefit to grow in real terms due to increases in population and income. Their prediction is a growth rate of 4 percent, but it could be as low as 1 percent and as high as 6 percent. Analysts estimate the real discount rate for New City to be 6 percent, though they acknowledge that it could be a percentage point higher or lower.

a. Calculate the present value of net benefits for the project using the analysts predictions. b. Investigate the sensitivity of the present value of net benefits to alternative predictions within the ranges given by the analysts. Excel spreadsheet for part a. showing the present value of net benefits for the project (part a).

b. you can vary the assumed values for the scrap value of land ($2 M to $5M), growth rate of benefits (0.01 to 0.06) and discount rate (0.05 to 0.07) as an exercise but submit your results for the best-case analysis and the worst-case analysis.

Problem 3 Spreadsheet
Assumptions:
Annual Discount Rate	0.06
Annual Growth Rate of Benefits	0.04
Construction Cost	$12,000,000
Annual Operations Cost	$750,000
First Year Benefit	$1,200,000
Scrap Value	$4,000,000
		Construction	Operational	Annual	Scrap	Annual	PV Annual
		Cost	Cost	Benefit	Value	NB	NB
Year	0
	1
	2
	3
	4
	5
	6
	7
	8
	9
	10
	11
	12
	13
	14
	15
	16
	17
	18
	19
	20