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4. One year later In answering this question, ignore the additional B tomatoes and setup costs. In April the year after, Red Brand Canners is

  • 4. One year later In answering this question, ignore the additional B tomatoes and setup costs. In April the year after, Red Brand Canners is preparing for the annual negotiations with the tomato farmers. Although the quality of the crop varies from year to year, the price and quantity are negotiated in advance. At a meeting, Dan Tucker, William Cooper, Charles Myers and Mitchell Gordon agree that this year, an acceptable price would be 20 cents per pound, and they are debating how many pounds of tomatoes to contract for. Dan Tucker says that initial discussions revealed that they could order up to 13 million pounds of tomatoes. Charles Myers says that demand is pretty much the same as last year, i.e. they would be able to sell up 600,000 cases of whole canned tomatoes, and demand for juice and paste is again limited to 55,000 and 84,000 cases, respectively. Also prices and production costs are stable and would be the same as last year. The only uncertainty is the quality of the crop. Looking at historical data, Tucker observes that in the past there were basically three types of years. In “wet” years, like last year, the crop was quite poor, and contained only about 20% Grade A. In “sunny” years, the percentage of A tomatoes was around 60%, and in “normal” years, the crop contained approximately 50% Grade A tomatoes. Tucker also observed that about 25% of the years were “sunny”, 50% “normal” years and 25% “wet”. • Assume you know that next year is going to be a sunny year, how many pounds of tomatoes would you advise RBC to buy? Call this S. How about for a normal (N) and wet (W) year? • Suppose you order S, N or W pounds of tomatoes. What would be the possible outcomes, given that the year could be sunny, normal or wet? • How many pounds of tomatoes would you advise RBC to buy?



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To calculate the optimal quantity of tomatoes to buy for each scenario sunny normal and wet years we need to use the expected value approach considering the probabilities of each type of year Given Su... blur-text-image

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