North Carolina: September 5, 2002

Hurricane Hortence slammed into North Carolina's southern coast on September 5, 2002, withsustained winds of approximately 115 miles per hour and gusts as high as 125 miles per hour.At some point, 1.7 million customers in North Carolina lost electricity. Traveling in the wake ofHurricane Frank, which struck the same area in July, Hortence's 12-foot storm surge causedextensive damage from the South Carolina border to Surf City, NC.

Hortence had become a tropical depression on August 24, then weakened before strengtheningagain into a minimal hurricane on August 29 as it threatened the Lesser Antilles. Afterbypassing the Lesser Antilles, Hortence weakened to a tropical storm, then strengthened againas it neared the Bahamas.

As Hortence approached the U.S. coast, it had hurricane-force winds extending as far as 140miles from the storm center. You are the Emergency Manager for Brunswick County, NC, whichincludes Wilmington. The main roads out of the Wilmington area run east-west, but evacueesneed to head north. It is Labor Day weekend, and approximately 350,000 people need to beevacuated.

1. Given Hortence's history of weakening, then strengthening, at what point would you open theEOC and notify response personnel?
2. What decision would you recommend concerning issuing a mandatory evacuation order?How would you proceed with the evacuation (if one is ordered)? Why?
3. What would you tell those citizens who decide to shelter in place? What would you tellresponders?
4. What potential problems do you foresee in the scenario that you would have made contingencyplans for?

10:30 A.M. EDT, September 6, 2002

Hortence made landfall during the night of September 5. Damage in Wilmington andsurrounding areas is severe. Initial damage assessment indicates that the water treatmentfacility has been breached by floodwaters; tornadoes have damaged power lines throughoutthe area; and the storm surge has carried homes, businesses, and churches off theirfoundations. It is clear that many of those in shelters will be unable to return to their homes inthe foreseeable future.

Calls are coming in via cellular phone requesting emergency rescue of citizens who ignored theevacuation order and decided to shelter in place. Because cell phone locations take longer topinpoint, these calls, together with other emergency calls, are jamming the 9-1-1 lines.

Also, because water levels remain high and electricity is out through most of the area, much ofthe public is unaware of the severity of the damage. Many are anxious to return to their homes.

1. What steps would you take to notify the public of the current level of risk?
2. What would you do to correct the communications problem at the 9-1-1 center?
3. What potential problems do you foresee in the scenario that you would have madecontingency plans for?

12:15 P.M., September 6, 2002

An elderly couple requiring an emergency rescue has refused to leave without their cat. Floodwatershave surrounded their house to the second floor. The water rescue team reports that thehouse is unstable.

A fire has broken out in the center of Wilmington. Because the water levels remain high,firefighters are unable to approach the blaze.

Before the hurricane season began, shelters were stocked with supplies for 3 days, based on100-percent capacity. Most shelters are currently over their capacitysome by as much as 50percent. Some shelters will have to remain open for the foreseeable future.

1. What would you tell the elderly couple? The rescuers?
2. How would you deal with the fire?
3. What would you do to resolve the pending issues at the shelter

Decision Making and Stress Decisions can be as simple as delegating a routine task or as complex as responding to a significant crisis. Decision making in a crisis is made more difficult because of stress. Impediments to making the right decisions under stress include: Perceived or real-time pressure. Possible political pressures. High- or low blood sugar levels as a result of erratic eating patterns. Caffeine. Sleep deprivation and resulting fatigue. Lack of information. Conflicting information. Uncertainty. Under stress, decision-makers are more likely to: Experience conflict with other key players. Perceive selectively because of sensory overload, and thus perhaps miss important information. Experience perception distortion and poor judgment. Decision-makers under stress also tend to: Be less tolerant of ambiguity and thus perhaps make premature decisions. Experience a decreased ability to handle difficult tasks and work productively. Experience a greater tendency toward aggression and escape behaviors. They may also: Consider only immediate survival goals, sacrificing long-range considerations. Choose a risky alternative. Get tunnel vision. Succumb to "groupthink." An essential key to effective decision making in a crisis is systematic. An excellent way to be systematic is to use the problem-solving model.