** Note: Do Not Forget to Estimate the RMSE for ALL 4 MODELS Use n=10 for this exercise. 1. Data on Real Personal Consumption Expenditures for the US is reported in the following c. Using your RMSE criterion, which forecast would you have used for 2019 ? Why is table. this a logical result for Personal Consumption Expenditures? a. IF you want to recover this data on your own using the FRED Add-In, once it is installed, type the following in the first four rows of the spreadsheet: Then click on the button in upper right hand corner, "Get FRED Data" Or Simply Use the Data below, also available in an Excel doc on blackboard: -.r unknown ruture value to be rorecast using 4 metnoas. a. Column IV: Using the following Linear Regression, forecast Personal Consumption Expenditures for each time.period (where time =(0,1,2, ) Y^t=10863.2+491.9Time Note: If you want to estimate this regression, regress PCE=f( time). In Excel, using the Data Analysis tool, you enter "Personal Consumption Expenditures" as the Y-values, and time as the X-values. b. Using the forecasts, compare the accuracy of each of the forecasting methods based on the RMSE criterion in excel. Recall for each type of estimation method: RMSE=n1(YtY^t)2 ** Note: Do Not Forget to Estimate the RMSE for ALL 4 MODELS Use n=10 for this exercise. 1. Data on Real Personal Consumption Expenditures for the US is reported in the following c. Using your RMSE criterion, which forecast would you have used for 2019 ? Why is table. this a logical result for Personal Consumption Expenditures? a. IF you want to recover this data on your own using the FRED Add-In, once it is installed, type the following in the first four rows of the spreadsheet: Then click on the button in upper right hand corner, "Get FRED Data" Or Simply Use the Data below, also available in an Excel doc on blackboard: -.r unknown ruture value to be rorecast using 4 metnoas. a. Column IV: Using the following Linear Regression, forecast Personal Consumption Expenditures for each time.period (where time =(0,1,2, ) Y^t=10863.2+491.9Time Note: If you want to estimate this regression, regress PCE=f( time). In Excel, using the Data Analysis tool, you enter "Personal Consumption Expenditures" as the Y-values, and time as the X-values. b. Using the forecasts, compare the accuracy of each of the forecasting methods based on the RMSE criterion in excel. Recall for each type of estimation method: RMSE=n1(YtY^t)2