Note: For this problem, you may need to scan or take a picture of hand-written notes depicting the decision tree, and upload that file. Please use whatever means necessary and convenient, but ensure that the work is legible and viewable.

Jocelyn, a CEO, is trying to decide whether to implement a new strategy for her organization. She has considered various qualitative factors, and would like to complement these factors with an objective analysis that relies on probabilities and expected values.

Jocelyn has compiled the following information

If she does nothing, profits will remain where they are currently.

If she implements the strategy, and it is successful, profit willincreaseby $80,000.If she implements the strategy,and itis a failure, profit willdecreaseby $50,000.

Jocelyn has determined that the probability that the strategy will either succeed or fail, and there is no "in between." She assesses the probability of fail as 25%.

Ryan, a consultant, has offered his analysis of the scenario.His analysis involves providing a "favorable"(which signals success)or "unfavorable"(which signals failure)rating.

Ryan says: "In past similar instances, when success occurred, I identified the scenario as "favorable" 82% of the time." Ryan also says: "In past similar instances, when failureoccurred,Iidentifiedthe scenario as "unfavorable" 90% of the time."

Required

1. Prepare a decision tree that clearly provides an objective analysis of the options. The decision tree should clearly denote expected values, probabilities, and best courses of action (where applicable).

Note: Round dollar values to the nearest dollar, and probabilities should be rounded to three decimal places (i.e., 0.212 or 21.2%).

2. In addition to the tree itself, calculate the expected value of the information provided by the consultant.