Now, probability of true positive in test = 0. 76 Probability of false positive test = 0- 12 ": Post test, An case of true positive you decide to build a mine. Profit = - $1M - $0. 5 + $ 3M = $1.5m (initial test) Post test , If you decide to build a winery, in case of test show low . Profit = - $3 M - $0.5 +$13 = $9-5 Expected geturin post test = 0 . 7 6 X 1 - 5 + 0 . 1 2 X- 0. 15 + 0.12 X 9.5 $ 2 . 1 M which is higher than previous getusin . Hence , In getting the test to be done , is best choice and once it proceed accordingly . Although , this is the connect answer. Due to complex nature of question, more than 1 approach can be taken to achieve the same result .Ang- Given : For Winery , initial cost is $3M . For minesial, initial cost is $ 1M . on selling, we will make $0-1M. For zoo, Revenue is $0-2M. Consultant change is $0.5M . .: on seeing the data, we will make a decision ; Decision Build Winery Build Mine Sell ($3M) ($1M ) mineral No-mineral Mineral Non-mineral Return ($0 -1M ) Petting Revenue Revenue $0 Zoo $ 13 M ($3M) ( $0 .2M ) profit . Loss Loss $2- 8M Profit $10M ($2M) ($1M ) 0-75 0-25 0.75 0 .25 Expected gletugin Expected Return (0-75 X- 0.25)+(0.25x10) (0.75 X2) + (0-25X-1) $0 .4 = $1.25M