Numerical responses to be submitted via a quiz tool on ilearn: Exercise 1 - Application (10 marks) For the purposes of this report, only consider the data from March 2011 to February 2020 as the sample of data that is available to you - that is, ignore any recent observations. This means that the first actual observation in your Excel file is from March 2011 and your last actual observation in your Excel file is from February 2020. For the Seasonally-adjusted data for Cafes, Restaurants and Takeaway Food (Series ID: A3348639K) available in Table 1: Forecast the out-of-sample values for every month in the period March 2020 - February 2021 (both months inclusive) using Holt's Exponential Smoothing with the following parameters: alpha = 0.5 and beta = 0.2. For the seed of the level use the first observation, Y,. For the seed of the trend - take the difference of the first two observations (Y2 - Y1). Before you begin Exercise 1, let's check that you have the right data! The average should be 3371! Once you perform Holt's Exponential Smoothing with alpha = 0.5 and beta = 0.2, what are the following numerical values: 1. The within-sample forecast for February 2020. 2. The out-of-sample forecast for March 2020. 3. The out-of-sample forecast for February 2021. 4. The MSE. 5. The MAE