Observation to explain: When you are in the grocery store, you notice that a section of shelving that previously you've always seen stocked with breakfast cereals is now completely empty .

Section B

H1

Question 6 Write a prediction for H1. (This means the evidence you would expect to find if H1 were true.) This evidence will be referred to in notation as E1. E1 =

Question question 7 Decide the probability for (E1|H1). P(E1|H1) =

Question 8 Decide the probability for (E1|H1). P(E1|H1) =

Question 9 What is the evidence strength of E1? Is it confirming or disconfirming evidence? Explain your answer, including any calculations you have used to work it out.

Question 10 pts Using Bayes' expanded theorem, write the notation for determining P(H1|E1).

Question 11 Using Bayes' expanded theorem, write the calculation for determining P(H1|E1). Also, clearly include the answer to this calculation, on a decimal scale.

H2

Question 12;

Write a prediction for H2. (This means the evidence you would expect to find if H2 were true.)

This evidence will be referred to in notation as E2.

E2 =

Question 13;

Decide the probability for (E2|H2).

P(E2|H2) =

Question 14 pts

Decide the probability for (E2|H2).

P(E2|H2) =

Question 15

Using Bayes' expanded theorem, write the calculation for determining P(H2|E2).

Also, clearly include the answer to this calculation, on a decimal scale.

Question 16

Draw and label a Bayes box for the updated probability of (H2|E2).

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Question 17

E3 is some additional evidence for H2. It is discovered after E2 has been found to be true. E3 is therefore providing us with updated evidence for H2.

P(E3|H2) = 0.75

P(E3|H2) = 0.15

Using Bayes' expanded theorem, write the calculation for determining P(H2|E3).

Also, clearly include the answer to this calculation, on a decimal scale.