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of3 O ZOOM + Page 3 of 3 ZOOM 10) Suppose that a country has 3 political parties: the Conservative (C), Liberal (L), and National
of3 O ZOOM + Page
3 of 3 ZOOM 10) Suppose that a country has 3 political parties: the Conservative (C), Liberal (L), and National (N) parties. If a person votes for the candidate from one party in an election, that person may decide to vote for the same party in the next election or may switch to vote for a candidate from another party in the next election. The transition matrix is: NEXT ELECTION THIS ELECTION c L N c .5 .3 .2 L .4 .4 .2 N .3 .6 Assume there is an election every year, so the transition time is one year. Find the following with the help of a matrix calculator. (2 pts each) a) If a person voted for the Liberal party in this election, find the probability that the person votes for the National party in the next election. b) If a person voted for the National party in this election, find the probability that the person votes for the Conservative party in the election two years from now. c) If in this election Conservatives received 40% of the votes, Liberals 35% of the votes, and Nationals the remaining 25% of the votes, what is the predicted distribution for the next election? d) Assuming the current distribution from part (c), what will the distribution be in the election two years from now?
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