Question
Oilco must determine whether or not to drill for oil in the South China Sea. If the decision is not drilling, the option can be
Oilco must determine whether or not to drill for oil in the South China Sea. If the decision is not drilling, the option can be sold for $10 million. If drilling is chosen, the well can occur to be dry with probability of 0.5 which would result in a loss of $70 million. The well may be wet with probability of 0.3 and a resultant payoff of $50 million, or may gush out with probability of 0.2 and a resultant payoff of $200 million. Assuming that Oilco is a risk-neutral decision maker, answer the following questions.
a) Determine Oilcos optimal course of action.
b)Determine EVPI.
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