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On 23 April 2021, the closing price of the May 2021 30-day interbank cash rate contract was 97.78. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had
On 23 April 2021, the closing price of the May 2021 30-day interbank cash rate contract was 97.78. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had a board meeting scheduled for 4 May 2021 and the current overnight cash rate was 2 per cent per annum. On 23 April, what was the probability implied by the price of the May 2022 30-day interbank cash rate contract that the RBA would increase the cash rate to 2.5 per cent at its May meeting?
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