On January 16, 2008, after the new offer is made and accepted, what is the markets estimated probability of the deal closing? What is the markets estimate for synergies? Assume premerger prices of $15.50 for BEA and $22.00 for Oracle. After announcement prices are $18.46 for BEA and $21.90 for Oracle. Shares outstanding of Oracle were 5,107 million and BEA systems shares were 413.032 million. How is the synergy divided between the two groups of shareholders?