On Labor Markets and the Possibility of a Soft Landing: A few months ago, Olivier Blanchard, Alex Domash and Lawrence Summers (BDS) wrote an influential Policy Brief arguing that there were very slim chances of a soft landing for the US economy. They made a number of points based on a numerical analysis of the Beveridge Curve. A month or two later, Andrew Figura and Chris Whaler (both at the Fed) produced a response that argued there was a higher probability of a soft landing than recognized by BDS. Read the two policy briefs and analyse your take of the discussion. In particular, make sure to take into account the last 5 months of data on vacancies and unemployment (and any other information you think is relevant) and use it to frame your discussion. You do not have to take sides on the debate, rather make an informed comment and state your conclusion. While the debate is cast in the context of an analysis of the Beveridge Curve, feel free to connect your analysis to the New Keynesian Model and its implications for activity (and thus unemployment through Okun's Law) and inflation.

https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/bad-news-fed-beveridge-space

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-does-the-beveridge-curve-tell-us-about-the-likelihood-of-a-soft-landing-20220729.html