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On May 9, 2016, Monsanto was trading at $89.03 per share. Shortly afterwards Bayer offered to pay $128 per share to acquire Monsanto. Two months

On May 9, 2016, Monsanto was trading at $89.03 per share. Shortly afterwards Bayer offered to pay $128 per share to acquire Monsanto. Two months before the deal closed in 2018, the stock traded at $116.60 per share.

What was the arbitrage spread and what was the market's forecasted probability that the deal would successfully close?

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