) Operations manager, Margaret O'Meagher, in Miramichi, N.B. is interested in determining an optimal inventory policy at her Miramichi Valley Restaurant Ltd. (MVRL) for orders of frozen french fries from McCain Foods in Florenceville, N.B. The number of pounds of french fries used by MVRL over the past 15 weeks is as follows: Week Pounds Week Pounds Week Pound

1 16,400 6 14,800 11 17,300 2 15,500 7 16,100 12 16,800 3 18,200 8 15,600 13 17,200 4 17,400 9 16,900 14 15,700 5 16,100 10 17,700 15 16,200

a. Graph this time series. b. Verify statistically that the time series is stationary. c. Using a three-week moving average, calculate the forecasted weekly demand for frozen McCain french fries at MVRL for weeks 16 through 20. d. Using a four-week moving average, calculate the forecasted demand for McCain frozen french fries at the MVRL for weeks16 through 20. e. Which moving average method gives the lower mean squared forecast error? Suppose exponential smoothing is used to forecast weekly sales demand for McCain french fries. f. What is the forecast of weekly french fry sales demand for weeks 16 through 20 using a smoothing constant at =.10? g. What is the forecast of the weekly french fry demand for weeks 16 through 20 using a smoothing constant of =.20? h. Which of the two smoothing constants gives the lower mean squared forecast error? i. Which of the two smoothing constants gives the lower mean absolute value of the forecasting error? j. Which of the two smoothing constants gives the lower mean absolute percent of the forecast error? k. Which of the two smoothing constants gives the lower largest deviation of the forecast error? OPTIONAL BONUS PART OF QUESTION 1. (5 points) Suppose exponential smoothing is used to forecast weekly sales demand for McCain french fries for weeks 16 through 20. Use Solver to: l. Determine the value of that minimizes the mean squared forecast error. m. Determine the value of that minimizes the mean absolute value of the forecast error. n. Determine the value of that minimizes the mean.