Overview: Interpret real-world probability scenarios.

Directions: The weatherman says: There is a 30% chance of rain this afternoon on the Leeward side of Oahu.

Does this mean Leeward residents will need an umbrella for 30% of the afternoon time but not during the remaining 70%? Or, should only 30% of all Leeward residents expect to see rain and the remaining 70% to see drier conditions?

According to the National Weather Service, (Full URL: https://www.weather.gov/), precipitation probability is a commonly misunderstood statistic. The probability of precipitation is actually not properly represented in the two statements of the previous paragraph. The probability of precipitation (Full URL: https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf) is simply a statistical probability of 0.01" inch of more precipitation at a given area in the given forecast area in the time period specified. Therefore, what the weatherman is actually saying is that there is a 30% chance of at least 0.01" of rain anywhere in the Leeward area from 12 pm to 6 pm.

Please address the following topics:

a.) Do a quick Internet search to find a real-life application of probability (like the example above). Insert the web URL of the article that you found.

b.) After you have read the article, summarize what you learned.

c.) Describe your reaction to what you learned. Were you surprised? Not surprised?

REFERENCE:

(Full URL: https://www.weather.gov/)

(Full URL: https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf)