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Introduction

Real Gross Domestic Product or real GDP, is an inflation- adjusted measures that replicates the value of all goods and services produce in a country or an economy in a given year. A real GDP can rise when there is an increase in the money supply and on the other hand, an economy's real GDP will fall when there is a shift in the demand, increasing interest rates and when government spending is reduced. During this outbreak of this deadly virus in China, many people are dead from it and many are still victim of it, even many economies are still affected by it. In the PIC's including Fiji, caught the virus, which is the main reason why most of their economies has fallen since last year and a few months back. Fiji's real GDP got affected very bad, and that's really what that explains the down fall of the economy. This is why it took more time to recover with the new strategies measure that are being applied globally in terms of international trading and businesses in order to boost the economy back to where it was before Covid-19 strikes. In this short report, it will be focusing mainly on Fiji's Real GDP because it being affected by the pandemic and assessments are done on the pre-Covid and current-Covid analysis in order to illuminate on the change due to health and also there will be a short result on a study that is being carried on the estimation of the situation.

Discussions; Assessment on the Pre-Covid and Current-Covid on the real GDP of Fiji

Pre-Covid

Before thepandemic, Fiji wasmaking good advancement with their economic growth rate,and it wasdoing verywell in accomplishing few of itstrade and development goals, while there are few goals yet to achieve. In thePacific, manyPacific Islandstates including Fiji, made gradual progressin in their economy until late 2019, Fiji is establishing trade partners with theirneighbouring countries and evenengaging in internationaltrade with othercountries overseas. Most of thePICs are internationally knownfor their resources, in the previous years before the end of 2019, their economydeveloped wellin normal state. The onlymajor contributors to oureconomy's decline have been natural disasters like cyclones and others, but from 2019to this present day we have a national threadthat has been the deadly virusaffecting manyPacific economies, especiallyFiji. As we all know Fiji is known through out the world by its tourism activities, manufacturing industries and foreign exports of products. The following diagrams is the GDP of Fiji that was presented from 2010 to 2019, a clear description of the table will be shown on the trends on the line graph.

Figure1. Gross Domestic Product of Fiji from 2010 to 2019.

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/fiji/gdp

The diagram in fig.1 demonstrates data on the GDP from 2010 to 2019, every year from 201, the economy rises, its normal for every country to progress in every year with their economy due to better capitals and other resources. In the case of Fiji, Fiji is encaging to new business trading and international trading which we know in the past years for the new manufacturing products being exported to foreign partner countries under the same trading markets. As time goes on Fiji started involving and investing in tourism, agriculture, manufacturing and exports of its products as it contributes a lot to the Fiji economy like sugar(Britannica, 2021).

As tourism and foreign export of manufactured product are not affected by any issue, the production is very outstanding in a beneficial side of the Fiji economy, because it provides more job opportunity for everyone. Thus, more people in the industry, the more service they provide to a better standard of shifting the economy growth rate upwards.

Figure 2. Fiji's unemployment rate from 2013 to 2019

Source:https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Fiji/unemployment_rate/

When unemployment rate deceases means that everyone are working and contributing to the rise of the economy, that's when more and more manufacturing products are exported, more tourism arrival into the country, the more people have jobs will allow more cash flows in the economy. During the outbreak, many people have jobs that's why unemployment fall in fig.2.

Current-Covid

The industries are doing well, consumer investment in the economy at the nationalmacro levelis good butcovid is causing thelockdown. This resulted in thecessation of economic activity and consequently theabandonment ofcommunity work. The economyhas stalled for several monthsdue to theCovid situation. Forthis huge loss the economy has tobear andalso the peoplewho work in thecompany have suffered huge losses. The demand in theeconomy has decreased andtherefore investmenthas also decreased and thishas also ledto an economicrecession.

The rise of Covid 19 pandemic has caused economic repercussions in all over the world. The pandemic has significantly reduced Fiji's real GDP in the economies and other pacific countries. Fiji is one of the country's that got hit very hard by covid-19, the virus affects people's health, social life, jobs, religions activities, education and most of all the economy(Xinhua, 2020). Tourism is one the main factor that contribute more in the economy of Fiji, it was stated by the Fiji Hotel & Tourism Association (FHTA) that tourism alone contributes 40% to Fijis GDP. The pandemic has even expanded poverty and inequality rate of Fiji in the past months. When tourism is being affected, it means there will be an increase in unemployment rate, in late March 2020, the Fiji Hotel & Tourism Association (FHTA) declared that 93% of its 279 members had closed down due to radical decline in tourist(FTUC, 2020). This leads to more additional issues apart from Covid that are affected, below are the top five industries that are affected by Covid-19 in Nationwide, Western Division and Central/Eastern Division(UN, 2020).

Figure 3. Top industries that are affected Nationwide, in the Western division and the Central/Eastern Division

source:file:///C:/Users/OEM/Downloads/SEIA%20Fiji%20Consolidated%20Report.pdf

The bar graphs in fig.3 above illustrate the top five industries that are affected by the Pandemic, in the whole nationwide, wholesales and retails are the most affected industries because shops are closed for few months and other business outlets, followed by tourism accommodation and food services. As mentioned, reductions of tourism coming to the country leads to fall in revenue of the government when unemployment rate increases. Then construction, manufacturing and transport and storage, the same goes to the western division for the five industries being affected by the pandemic. While in the central or eastern division, only the whole sale is affected more than the other four industries. These 5 industries contribute more to the economy that's why real GDP falls when unemployment rises.

When unemployment rate rises, it is expected for real GDP and the GDP growth to fall. Lockdowns and curfew have boost up unemployed people as mentioned, a large fall of the export for tourism will fall, which forces Fijis economy to move into a recessionary situation. When hotels put out staff because reduction in tourist arrivals which leads to a big reduction on the governments revenue, so the only measure that would address this situation is to reduce interest rate(Gounder, 2020).

Figure 4. Unemployment rate from 2013- 2020

source:file:///C:/Users/OEM/Downloads/SEIA%20Fiji%20Consolidated%20Report.pdf

According to the SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF COVID-19 IN FIJI in fig.4, when the more people lose their jobs, it forces the unemployment rate to increase, compared to the past years, it has drop steadily until Covid when it boosts upwards(UN, 2020).

And with all these effects of the top five affected industries (Fig.3) that contributes to economic growth of the country is the result of the big or increase of unemployment which make the economic growth to fall in 2020. The diagram below on fig.5 will show the trend of Fiji's GDP in 2020, what really happens when all the industries and economic indicators are affected.

Figure 5. Fiji's GDP (%) from 2010 to 2020

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/fiji/gdp

Assessment that done to inform people and authority to stand up and make discission that benefits everyone. The Fijian government find every possible way to come up with health and hygiene measure that are aimed to get rid of the virus, the protocols that are used world-wide that could make people go back to work so that the economy will increase again to where it was before. Few of the pre-Covid assessments that are done were closing down of all business that contains or operates with crowded people.

Thus, government cannot sit and wait watching the economy freezes on a negative position, that is when they come up the protocols that is used world-wide, that is; Avoid crowded places and limited time to enclosed spaces;maintain at least 2m distances from others; when possible open windows and doors ventilation; keep hands clean and cover coughs and sneezes; wear mask especially in public places and when can't physically distance(FijianGovernment, 2021).

Government creates lockdown and curfew hours knowing that it also contributing on affecting the economy, then they realize the big gab or negative down fall on the real GDP, which also a leading cause of the fall of GDP, so it takes new difficult procedures. Note that during that time many people lost their jobs, so they only allow to take few workers to manufacturing industries, only few staffs to the super markets and only few taxis to provide service to the people. These practices are for allowing few people to operate around Fiji is kind of risky when the deadly virus is still around but, it holds or keep the economy on a stable or pause stage from falling while authority is figuring ways to tackle this international threat. Even though the economy is being affected badly, unemployment rate is also high, but the government tries its best through the survey assessment done in businesses and industries about unemployed and employed individuals, government still decide to provide stimulus packages, to support households and business that experience big losses in their services (Gounder, 2020).

As days and weeks goes by, measures are being carried out, more that 90% of adult population are being vaccinated, few business activities are opening their doors again and more industries are starting their manufacturing again. This has been a great achievement and will put a big smile to everyone because it feels like everything is going back to normal again, but not the economy, it might take few months for it to recover or come to its standard stage as before.

Estimation of Fiji's GDP and its Real GDP on current the situation

Due to assessments and survey, there are few studies that pointed out and gives estimation of the GDP and the real GDP for 2021 will given in a diagram below, due to few assessments done by the government, Economic Managements and the FNPF here, it will be a positive picture for the economy, thanks to the Ministry of health here in Fiji and the government for their better strategies plans and actions.

Figure 6. Expected GDP of Fiji in 2021https://tradingeconomics.com/fiji/gdp

Figure 7. Expected real GDP

source;https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk/covid-19-outbreak-pushes-fijis-economic-recovery-back-2022-20-08-2021?fSWebArticleValidation=true&mkt_tok=NzMyLUNLSC03NjcAAAGAP6wYBtHcTTu_v-iz0XI9ZPqkz-7nsC3dBLARmfUWjf8rzOL7WQLkbQIqzaY8jEXBeGsMRlR_0wR2-BVQE6DfI7WAz0VoA05sxyPz0Zvu7O3CB1vldQ

These estimations are done along side calculation, and interpretations of the pre-Covid against the current-Covid assessment that done to address this global issue. So, studies found that the in figure 6. The economy will positively rise, because of the good measures taken to recover slowly. And in Figure 7. We can see clearly the massive fall of the real GDP, so this current year, the economy is recovering slowly, then it was said that it will be boosting up in 2022 and the following year, if there was no other to break in the upcoming years(FitchSolution, 2021).

Conclusion To conclude, real GDP, is an inflation- adjusted measures that replicates the value of all goods and services produce in a country or an economy in a given year. Fiji's economywas hit hard by the start of theCovid-19 pandemic. Before theCovid it wasgood. The industry performed well Consumer investment in the economyat the macro level at the national level wasgood, but the covid caused theshutdown. Whichled to thefact that economic activitiesstopped andas a result people lose their jobs. The economy wasdormant for several months in theCovid situation. Because of these great losses, the economy and the peoplewho work in theundergrowth must alsosuffer thegreat losses. Demand in theeconomy decreased andwith-it investmentdecreased and this also ledto economicrecession. Because many people work in the top five industries that are affected throughout Fiji, which are wholesale and retails, Tourism, Manufacturing, Constructions and Transportation. The government thentied the package through thecentral bank tostimulate the economy and the package again tried togrow theeconomy. The money supplyhas been increased bylowering interestrates, whichshould ensure that more demandenters theeconomy, leading to moreinvestment, morejobs to increase or keep the real GDP at a stable stage and allowing the cash flow within the society flowing.