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Park Bus Corporation is facing three options: to increase the number of buses by either one, two, or three. Demand for these extra capacities
Park Bus Corporation is facing three options: to increase the number of buses by either one, two, or three. Demand for these extra capacities can be either small or large with probabilities estimated to be 0.3 and 0.7. The payoff of each possible event is as follows: One Bus Two Buses Three Buses Large demand $78,000 $82,000 Small demand $48,000 $38,000 $85,000 $25,000 When three buses are added and the demand turns out to be small, management has the option to introduce a discount fare to attract more passengers. If no discount is introduced, the payoff is $25,000 (as in the above table). If it is introduced, the response to discount fares can be either modest or sizeable, with their probabilities estimated to be 0.55 and 0.45, respectively. If response is modest, the payoff is estimated to be only $20,000; the payoff grows to $35,000 if the response is sizable. What are the expected payoffs of increasing the number of buses by one, two, and three, respectively? What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff? Explain in the text box below. Show the calculations in support of your answer.
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