Part 1: Forecast 2019 monthly average demand

You have been given the attached demand data, which covers the sales of Cough and InfeX from 2017 through the end of 2018.

Your team is tasked with the following:

To make forecasts for CoughX and InfeX for the data up through 12/2019, determine what your best forecast method is for each product.

Recommend one method they should use for CoughX for 2020.

Recommend one method they should use for InfeX for 2020 (it does not have to be the same method).

Write up your results in an Executive Memo.

Part 2: Forecast 2020 monthly average demand

You have been given the attached demand data, which covers the sales of Cough and InfeX from 2017 through the end of 2019.

Your team is tasked with the following:

To make forecasts for CoughX and InfeX for the data up through 12/2020, determine what your best forecast method is for each product.

Analyze the quality of the results (models) between 2019 and 2020 forecasts and write up your results in an Executive Memo.

Part 3: Research a Commercial Alternative

Ladonya has asked you to evaluate the Kinaxis supply chain software, a commercial option which says it can forecast demand better than these rudimentary methods. Shes found the Demand Planning brochure here: https://www.kinaxis.com/en/resources/content/c/demand-planning-broc?x=V-v35p

Review the Kinaxis.com website and under Resources find one case study which seems most similar to ours with CoughX and InfeX.

List three advantages the Kinaxis software appears to have over any of your methods.

List three drawbacks you might see from the Kinaxis software implementation.

Part 4: Write your Report

Write an executive memo for Ladonya and Rajeev outlining your answers to the questions from above. For each question, include screenshots of any visualizations or other output you use. In addition, answer the following questions:

If they could choose only one method to use for forecasting CoughX for 2021, which would you suggest they use and why? (Lets say you choose linear regression. You will be allowed to update the linear regression coefficients and forecast as every single month happens during 2021, but you wont be allowed to change to a moving average forecast halfway through the year, because it costs time and money to program the computers to calculate this.)

If they could choose only one method to use for forecasting InfeX for 2021, which would you suggest and why?

In both of these, be sure to take into consideration any behavior of the demand for each product (Does it jump? Is it seasonal? Steady?)

Would you recommend we use Kinaxis software instead? Why or why not?

Forecasting MGT 657.zip Download Forecasting MGT 657.zip

1. Using the data for 2017- 2018 and applying:

a. the naive algorithm

b. moving average (please select n - number of periods)

c. exponential smoothing

Then apply the best method that you choose to the data for 2017-2019

2. Using the data for 2017- 2019and applying:

a. the naive algorithm

b. moving average (please select n - number of periods)

c. exponential smoothing

Then apply the best method that you choose to the data for 2017-2020

3. Write an executive memo of your results (minimum 3 pages)

4. Please submit all your work (excel files and executive memo)