Part 3: Cognitive biases (7 questions)

1. Examine the following statements to find out whether there is a cognitive bias in Roberts reasoning. If there is a bias, name it and explain why Roberts reasoning is erroneous. An example is given to show the style of answers expected. If a statement does not have a cognitive bias, then you should write the statement is correct, plus an explanation.

2. Follow the given example in formulating your answers.

3. Assessment weight: 10.5% (1.5% for each question)

Questions

1. A reporter interviewed a graduate of a military academy.

   Reporter: We heard that the training of the academy is really harsh and inhumane. It ignores the human limits and keeps on pushing the students to unbearable extent.

   Robert: That is only an exaggeration. Yes, it is true that only 30% of the students can graduate. But as a student who went through the whole training, I can surely tell that the training is acceptable. As far as I can see, the comment you mentioned is not true.

2. Robert: Even my family is just middle-class, I think it will give my child a good prospect by sending him to enter that kindergarten. Yes, it is expensive; it charges $10,000 per month. But it is worth it. Nearly 100% of the graduates can enter top primary schools, then top secondary schools, and then top universities. The kindergarten must have its secret methods to help their students grow and succeed.

3. Daughter Mary: Daddy, I dont like the taste of your ice cream. Father Robert: Honey, finish it please! Daddy spent the whole morning on it.

4. Robert recorded the Mark Six results of the past 30 draws. From the statistics, he found that 3, 13, 22, 16, 26 and 39 were the six most frequently drawn numbers. So, he believes that those numbers will be the winning numbers in the next draw.

5. Robert: I called the general office of ABC company 10 times in the morning but to avail. The staff members of ABC company are lazy.

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6. Robert cancelled his plan to visit T-town because he thinks that the public transportation in the city was dangerous. He said, In 2014, a mass stabbing spree took place on Taiwan Metro on 21 May 2014 and directed at random civilians on a T-town Metro train near Kings Cross Station, resulting in 4 deaths and 24 injuries. In 7 July 2016, 25 commuters were severely injured when a suspected homemade pipe bomb was detonated on a train in T- town.

7. Robert was going to write a research paper on health risks of using microwave ovens. Since he was young, his parents told him microwave ovens were dangerous and so the families never used this electrical appliance. In his literature review, he used key words microwaves and health risks to search for information and gathered many research findings that showed microwave ovens pose health risks. He then concluded that it was not safe to use microwave ovens at home.

Question:

Example

Alex: I bought the ticket to watch this movie. It cost me $120. Right, the movie was boring and of poor quality. However, I could not waste the money by just walking out of the cinema half way.

Answer (name the bias and explain how Alexs argument fits the bias): This is a sunk cost fallacy.

The ticket was paid and could not be recovered. Alex just had to spend his time on the boring movie, which was an additional cost. That was not to his benefit.

Marking scheme: Correct naming of the bias: 0.75% (this part must be correct in order for the rest to earn

marks) Explanation: 0.75%