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Part B: Advanced techniques in Investment decision - Real Option Analysis Chemis Pharmaceutical Incorporation ( CPI ) is a medium - sized pharmaceutical supplier for

Part B: Advanced techniques in Investment decision - Real Option Analysis Chemis Pharmaceutical Incorporation (CPI) is a medium-sized pharmaceutical supplier for Australasian region. CPI has just attained a 15-year exclusive right to launch a new nasal spray which helps with clogged nose faster than any other ones available in the over-the-counter market (assumed no rivals or substitutions for a foreseeable future) called Ouvertin. With the co-operations of the marketing/production/financial teams of CPI, the estimated average cash flows for launching Ouvertin emerge as follows: Half-year Cash flows 0-10000000120000023000003360000440000056000006800000710000008100000091200000101200000111400000121600000131600000141200000151000000161000000171000000181000000191000000201000000211000000228000002380000024600000256000002660000027400000284000002940000030400000 The product is within the same line of CPI existing business while its cost of capital is 11.5% per year. In addition, launching Ouvertin will not alter the companys cost of capital. The launching of Ouvertin will cost $10 million at any point in time during the next fifteen years and is fixed (at $10 million). The 15-year government bond YTM is observed as 3.5% per year in the government bond market. The pharmaceutical product market is quite volatile in its nature. The six-month stock return variance on this industrys stock portfolio in the relevant markets is estimated as 21%. For simplicity, lets assume that the rate of decay on the product launching project is constant through time. Questions: 1. Should CPI should go ahead with the launching of the new product - Ouvertin? Provide a numerical justification in the context of real option analysis. The use of Black and Scholes model in Excel (submitted separately) to justify your numbers is also required Note: - Assume e =2.718 as we always do in class and lecture note.

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