Part II Scenario: Suppose your boss provided all the same information above but also stated that you have the flexibility of first hiring an epidemiologist research firm called Warp Speed Analytics? that are so-called specialists in predicting and recommending health-related states and events associated with vaccine production and distribution for a fee of $25,000. If the firm is hired, they will provide evidence of a vaccine being successful implemented within the next 6 months (i.e., air passenger travel will improve) or not (i.e., air passenger travel will not improve). The research firm tells you that their research and predictive analytics are accurate most of the time" and provides you with the following information of its past performance of outcomes associated with epidemiology research: Actual Outcomes Negative Positive Outcome Outcome 0.20 0.90 0.80 0.10 Research Predicted Positive Predictions: Predicted Negative b) Using the research firm's past performance results, develop a second decision tree for YVR to reflect this new option of hiring the research firm prior to making the decision to stop or continue construction. Draw this decision tree by hand and evaluate it using the EMV decision criterion. Provide a concluding statement of the optimal decision strategy according to this new scenario using the EMV decision criterion. Take a picture of your hand-drawn decision tree using your phone (or other device) and incorporate it into your Word document for submission. c) Use Treeplan to replicate your hand-drawn decision tree in part b). Copy and paste your decision tree into your Word document as a picture per the guidelines on page 5. d) State the Risk Profile associated with the optimal decision strategy (alternative) under the context of the EMV decision criterion. Hint: It should be understood that an actual positive outcome would imply that a vaccine is safely and reliably implemented within the next 8 months and air traffic travel will improve; and a negative outcome implies that a vaccine is not implemented within the next 8 months and air traffic travel does not improve or declines. In other words, you can apply their performance results as follows: Actual Outcomes Traffic does Traffic not improve Improves Research Predicted Positive 0.20 0.90 Predictions: Predicted Negative 0.80 0.10 Part II Scenario: Suppose your boss provided all the same information above but also stated that you have the flexibility of first hiring an epidemiologist research firm called Warp Speed Analytics? that are so-called specialists in predicting and recommending health-related states and events associated with vaccine production and distribution for a fee of $25,000. If the firm is hired, they will provide evidence of a vaccine being successful implemented within the next 6 months (i.e., air passenger travel will improve) or not (i.e., air passenger travel will not improve). The research firm tells you that their research and predictive analytics are accurate most of the time" and provides you with the following information of its past performance of outcomes associated with epidemiology research: Actual Outcomes Negative Positive Outcome Outcome 0.20 0.90 0.80 0.10 Research Predicted Positive Predictions: Predicted Negative b) Using the research firm's past performance results, develop a second decision tree for YVR to reflect this new option of hiring the research firm prior to making the decision to stop or continue construction. Draw this decision tree by hand and evaluate it using the EMV decision criterion. Provide a concluding statement of the optimal decision strategy according to this new scenario using the EMV decision criterion. Take a picture of your hand-drawn decision tree using your phone (or other device) and incorporate it into your Word document for submission. c) Use Treeplan to replicate your hand-drawn decision tree in part b). Copy and paste your decision tree into your Word document as a picture per the guidelines on page 5. d) State the Risk Profile associated with the optimal decision strategy (alternative) under the context of the EMV decision criterion. Hint: It should be understood that an actual positive outcome would imply that a vaccine is safely and reliably implemented within the next 8 months and air traffic travel will improve; and a negative outcome implies that a vaccine is not implemented within the next 8 months and air traffic travel does not improve or declines. In other words, you can apply their performance results as follows: Actual Outcomes Traffic does Traffic not improve Improves Research Predicted Positive 0.20 0.90 Predictions: Predicted Negative 0.80 0.10
