Part(c) please

count to give a test statistic value of -4.4551. If testing at the 5% significance level, she should conclude: . A. there are more runs than would be expected in an in- dependent series, the serial correlation being negative. . B. there are fewer runs than would be expected in an in- dependent series, the serial correlation being negative. . C. there is no evidence to reject the hypothesis that the eries are independent observations. 1). there are more runs than would be expected in an in- dependent series, the serial correlation being positive. E. there are fewer runs than would be expected in an in- dependent series, the serial correlation being positive. Part c) Suppose the trader decides that a suitable model for the value X (1) of a Canadian dollar in Brazilian Reals at time t is X (1) = 0.9X (1 - 1) +& for 1 = 1,2, ... where & is an error term with mean zero. Given that the final value of the observed series is 2.124 BRL, predict the next value to three decimal places.32. (3 points) A currency trader is interested in convert- ing between Brazilian Real and Canadian Dollars. She monitors the exchange rate over thirty consecutive trading days. Suppose the data are as plotted below: Brazilian Real against Canadian dollar BRL per C SDOLLAR 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.10 2.11 2.12 10 15 20 25 30 Time The overall mean of the above series is 2.096. The first fif- no teen observations x (1),...,x (t) in the series are 2.091, 2.078, 2.068, 2.062, 2.067, 2.082, 2.074, 2.071, 2.083, 2.093, 2.097, 2.09, 2.087, 2.087, 2.076 7 - - Part a) Compared to a series of fifteen independent observations, the wimber of runs (above and below the mean 2.096) in the fifteen Expe observations given is CA. Tess than expected. . B. more than expected. C. about the same as expected. Part b) The analyst decides to apply the runs test to the thirty obser vations. She counts the number of runs, then standardizes the