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Patients turn out at a special ward in a hospital, where they are tested for the flu. Historically, only 10% of patients get a positive

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Patients turn out at a special ward in a hospital, where they are tested for the flu. Historically, only 10% of patients get a positive test result. Let M1 = number of patients tested until first positive result, N2 = number of patients tested until second positive result. So for example the event { N1 = 2, N2 = 5} corresponds to the sequence FSFFS... where F stands for failure and S for success. Observe that in general 0 0.01, (* ) then the 10% historical figure will be dismissed. For what values of X is Inequality (*) satisfied? Assuming that the historical 10% figure is correct, compute or approximate the probability that it is nevertheless dismissed according to the above criterion. (1+2 points)

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