Perform a three point moving average and forecast demand, in pounds, for salt for the first quarter of year 4. Please round to the nearest whole number.

Flag question: Question 2

Write down the MAD for the three point moving average. Please round to two decimal points.

Flag question: Question 3

Perform exponential smoothing (alpha= 0.2)and indicate your forecast for year 4. Please round to the nearest whole number.

Flag question: Question 4

Write down the MAD for exponential smoothing. Please round your answer to two decimal points.

Flag question: Question 5

Identify an optimal value for alpha round to 3 decimal places.

Flag question: Question 6

Develop the trend projection equation (simple linear regression) slope. Please round to the nearest whole number.

Flag question: Question 7

Develop the trend projection equation (simple linear regression) intercept. Please round to the nearest whole number.

Flag question: Question 8

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Flag question: Question 9

What is the forecast for year 4 with Trend Projection for the first quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Flag question: Question 10

What is the forecast for year 4 with Trend Projection for the second quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Flag question: Question 11

What is the forecast for year 4 with Trend Projection for the third quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Flag question: Question 12

What is the forecast for year 4 with Trend Projection for the fourth quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Flag question: Question 13

Write down the MAD projection. Please round your answer to two decimal places.

Flag question: Question 14

Perform a Trend and Seasonal analyses for this data. Indicate the scaled seasonal indices for the first quarter. Please round your answer to three decimal places.

Flag question: Question 15

Perform a Trend and Seasonal analyses for this data. Indicate the scaled seasonal indices for the second quarter. Please round your answer to three decimal places.

Flag question: Question 16

Perform a Trend and Seasonal analyses for this data. Indicate the scaled seasonal indices for the third quarter. Please round your answer to three decimal places.

Flag question: Question 17

Perform a Trend and Seasonal analyses for this data. Indicate the scaled seasonal indices for the fourth quarter. Please round your answer to three decimal places.

Flag question: Question 18

When is the busiest period (quarter)?

Flag question: Question 19

Develop the linear regression equation after de-seasonalizing the data. Please indicate the slope, rounding your answer to two decimal places.

Flag question: Question 20

Develop the linear regression equation after de-seasonalizing the data. Please indicate the intercept, rounding your answer to the nearest whole number

Flag question: Question 21

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Flag question: Question 22

What is the forecast for year 4 with the Trend and Seasonal Method for the first quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Flag question: Question 23

What is the forecast for year 4 with the Trend and Seasonal Method for the second quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Flag question: Question 24

What is the forecast for year 4 with the Trend and Seasonal Method for the third quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Flag question: Question 25

What is the forecast for year 4 with the Trend and Seasonal Method for the fourth quarter? Please round your answer to the nearest whole number.

Flag question: Question 26

Of all the forecasts, which do you prefer?

Group of answer choices

Trend Projection

Trend and Seasonal

Exponential Smoothing

Moving Average

Flag question: Question 27

Why do you prefer that forecast?

Group of answer choices

MAD is the lowest

MAD is the highest

the forecast is best

the forecast is worst

Flag question: Question 28

Construct a scatter diagram showing the original data and the trend and seasonal forecast.

Summarize your findings and write a recommendation for the manager at Tahoe.

In your summary you should highlight (a) the forecasts using each method (b) the forecast errors using each method (c) the change in R2 from the linear trend model to the trend and seasonal model and the seasonal index values. Explain which is the best forecasting method and why you chose it.