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Petroleum Incorporated (PI) controls off-shore oil leases. It is considering the construction of a deep-sea oil rig at a cost of $530 million. The price
Petroleum Incorporated (PI) controls off-shore oil leases. It is considering the construction of a deep-sea oil rig at a cost of $530 million. The price of oil is $130 per bbl. and extraction costs are $80 per bbl. PI expects costs to remain constant. The rig will produce an estimated 1,200,000 bbl. per year forever. The risk-free rate is 10 percent per year, which is also the cost of capital. (Ignore taxes). Suppose that oil prices are uncertain and are equally likely to be $150 per bbl. or $110 per bbl. next year. Suppose that PI has the option to postpone the project by one year. Calculate the value of the real option to postpone the project for one year. (There is some rounding in the answer.)
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