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Petron Corporations management team is meeting to decide on a new corporate strategy. There are four options, as follows: Strategy A B C D Probability

Petron Corporations management team is meeting to decide on a new corporate strategy. There are four options, as follows:

Strategy

A

B

C

D

Probability of success

100%

80%

60%

40%

Cash flows next year if successful (in $ million)

50

60

70

80

Assume there are no cash flows after next year, and there are no cash flows if the strategy fails.

Now suppose the face value of debt is $46 instead of $20 and management chooses the strategy that maximizes the expected payoff to equity holders. What will be the expected payoff to equity holders next year in this case?

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