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Pharm-AC is a drug company with several initiatives in its R&D pipeline. Its scientists have developed several patented product ideas, one of which has become

Pharm-AC is a drug company with several initiatives in its R&D pipeline. Its scientists have developed several patented product ideas, one of which has become a lead candidate for a development effort due to its potential market demand. The total estimated cost to launch the product, including its development, is $150 million, in present value terms. It takes five years to fully develop this product. The finance and marketing groups of the company have estimated the following cash flows from the product after it has been fully developed (figures in million dollars):

Year

1

2

3

4

5

Cash Flow

5

11.4

14

21

28

Due to competition form generic drugs, the cash flow is expected to grow only at 1.5% in perpetuity after the last year shown in the above table. The finance group considers 16% to be the appropriate discount rate for this project. Despite its market potential, this product faces stiff competition from other major projects in the company's pipeline. The Vice President of the division decides to explore a strategic abandonment option. At any time during the next five years of development, the company can either continue with the development effort or sell off its intellectual property for $90 million to a strategic partner, who has shown great interest in this technology. The annual standard deviation of logarithmic returns of the future cash flow is estimated to be 35%, and the continuously-compounded annual risk-free rate of return over the next five years is 5%. Using the Binomial Option Pricing approach, what is the value of the abandonment option? Also show when would be optimal for the company to abandon this project.

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