PIP has already used bottom-up managerial judgment (qualitative approach) to estimate demand, especially related to the types of people needed. Now, the organization would like for you to estimate demand using the quantitative methods we discussed in class.

1. Calculate demand using:
   1. 
      
   2. Trend analysis. Calculate regular demand and then calculate projected demand for Summer.

Regular: 350 + 10.5 = 360.5

Summer: 389 + 11.67 = 400.7

1. 2. Ratio analysis (there are 2)
2. 3. Regression analysis

(-23.02, 93.91)

Are these estimates reliable? What could account for these findings?

 
 
 

Currently, PIP employs 350 FTES in the front desk/guest relations job The average FTES for the job is 350/month Some months are busier than others. Summer demand is highest. In summer, PIP employs an average of 389 FTES The number of front desk/guest relations associates increased 3% each year for the past 3 years Each FTE can serve about 140 guests. "Guest" is defined as the person who rents a unit for their group; so, a family of 5 would be defined as one guest for this ratio. The projected number of guests for next year is 52,500. Each FTE averages about $2,371.00 in add-on services (e.g., beach umbrellas and chairs, tours, rental fees for equipment, etc.). Next year's estimate of add-on services is expected to be approximately $665,000. The organization found that Customer Service Rating predicts how many FTES are needed in the FD/GR job. Please see the regression analysis in the accompanying Excel file. The intercept or constant is (-23.015) and the beta weight for CS Rating is 93.907. The company would like to have a Customer Service Rating of at least 4.5. (Note: I ran the regression analysis for you, but I included the data so that you can run it as well and compare to my results). Included on the next page is the transition probability matrix from the last 2 years. These jobs are considered comparable to each other, but Front Desk/Guest Relations (FD/GR) Associates often move to other jobs in order to gain more operational experience. Note: The numbers in parentheses indicate the number of FTES in each job currently).