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Questions:

Case Problem: Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales The Vintage Restaurant, on Captiva Island near Fort Myers, Florida, is owned and operated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its third year of operation. During those three years, Karen sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. Through the efforts of Karen and her staff, her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the island. To better plan for future growth of the restaurant, Karen needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance. The following table shows the value of food and beverage sales ($1,000s) for the first three years of operation: First Second Third Month Year Your Your January 242 263 282 February 235 236 255 March 237 247 265 April 178 193 205 May 184 193 210 June 140 149 160 July 145 157 165First Second Third Month Year Year Year August 152 161 174 September 110 122 126 October 130 130 148 November 152 167 173 December 206 230 235 Managerial Report Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following: 1. A time series plot. Comment on the underlying patlem in the time series. 2. Using the dummy variable approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year. How would you explain this model to Karen? Assume that January sales for the fourth year tum out to be $285,000. What was your forecast error? If this error is large, Karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. What can you do to resolve her uncertainty about the forecasting procedure