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166 This analysis is our forecast for market penetration of robot-based babysitting by year. 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 181 182 183 184 16 - 19 14 - 19 186 187 188 189 2019 $19.26 Price per Hour People-based Babysitting Price per Hour Robot-based Babysitting 2020E $19.26 $15.00 6.1% 2021E $19.26 $10.00 21% 2022E $19.26 $5.00 62% 2023E $19.26 $4.00 73% 2024E $19.26 $3.00 80% Implied Market Share of Robot-based Babysitting What does this forecast say about Robot-based babysitting market? It has surged very fast, a 'Big Bang' Disruption as described by Accenture in the 'INTRO Disruptions' Sheet. Pricing was very aggressive and captured significant market share very quickly with the market reaching saturation in about 5 years. Given the success it enjoyed with the Walking Talking Robot, Apple decides to pursue an adjacent market opportunity in tutoring. The Tutoring market is a large, very lucrative market in the billions of dollars. Let's assume Apple pursues the domestic online tutoring market before going after the broader tutoring market. Step 1. Use the Year/Year growth rate to forecast the US Online Tutoring market. Step 2: Predict the market penetration for the Robot in 2023E and 2024E. We have already given you the 0% starting point in 2022E and the fabulous 40% share by 20125E. Step 3: Examine the change in the S-curve. 2025E $19.26 $2.50 85% 2022E 4% 0% SO CAGRs (S Millions) US Online Tutoring Year/Year G rowth Walking Talking Robot Share Robot Tutoring Source: IBIS World 2015 $468,200,000 7% 0% SO 2016 8% 0% SO 2017 $545,200,000 8% 0% SO 2018 $583,200,000 7% 0% SO 2019 4% 0% SO 2020E $633,300,000 4% 0% SO 2021E 4% 0% SO 2023E 3% SO 2024E 3% SO 2025E 2% 40% SO 6% 7% 10 - 19 7%