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Please Help InFluVac Inc. has recently accepted an order for 10,000,000 doses of the flu vaccine and the company wants to plan its production schedule
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InFluVac Inc. has recently accepted an order for 10,000,000 doses of the flu vaccine and the company wants to plan its production schedule to provide a promised delivery date. There are three sources of uncertainty that make planning difficult. First, the vaccine must be produced in batches, and there is uncertainty in the time required to produce a batch, which could be anywhere from 5 to 11 days. This uncertainty is described by the discrete distribution in the table below. Second, the yield (usable quantity) from any batch is uncertain. Based on preliminary data, Pharma Inc. believes the yield can be modeled by a beta distribution with parameters alpha =2, beta =5, a lower bound of 500,000 doses and an upper bound of 1,000,000 doses. note: this will thus be formulated using the BETA.INV function: =BETA.INV(RAND(),2,5,500,000,1,000,000) Third, all batches must go through a rigorous quality inspection once completed. The probability that a batch passes inspection is 80%, with 20% probability the batch fails the quality inspection and the entire batch must be discarded. InFluVac Inc. wants your help in building a simulation model to help the company determine how many days of production are necessary to fulfill the order. Develop a model that simulates successive batches - their days to complete, their yields, and whether they pass the quality inspection - and keep a running total of the number of number of doses produced. Determine how many days it takes to produce the 10,000,000 doses. Note, you only need to simulate as many batches as are required to fulfill the order. Once you have the model, replicate the simulation 1,000 iterations to find the expected values. 2) (5 points) What is the expected number of days it will take to produce the 10,000,000 doses of the vaccine? days 3) (5 points) What is the expected number of batches required to produce the 10,000,000 doses of the vaccine? batches 4) (5 points) What is the expected median yield of the batches (after inspection check)? dosesStep by Step Solution
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