Question
please help me give feedback to my classmates post following the below guidelines I was assigned a technique in the imaginative category, look for peers
please help me give feedback to my classmates post following the below guidelines
I was assigned a technique in the imaginative category, look for peers who were assigned techniques in the contrarian and diagnostic categories. In your replies to the initial posts of your identified peers, focus on your peers' discussions of questions and value. What other questions might you ask if you used the techniques assigned to your peers? How might these additional questions add value to the analytic line?
The technique I have been assigned to is Alternative Future Analysis. The category connected to that technique is imaginative.
A tradecraft primer(2009) says that imaginative is a technique aimed at developing new insights, different perspectives, and/or developing alternative outcomes.
Reliaquest (2022) shared that forecasting structured analytics techniques (SAT) also known as alternative future analysis (AFA) are imaginative intelligence forecasting exercise used to detect alternative trajectories by developing probability but mind stretching stories or scenarios based on critical uncertainties to inform decisions-making strategies today. AFA has been proven to be highly effective in helping decision-makers and policymakers deliberate multiple futures, challenge their assumptions, and anticipate surprise developments by identifying 'unknown unknowns'."
A tradecraft primer (2009) explained that analysts first need to comprehend that there is a high uncertainty surrounding the topic that is in question. They then need to consider a wide range of considerations that might bear on the questions. And afterwards, they are than prepared to explore a range of outcomes and are not committed to any preconceived result.
A tradercraft primer (2009) discussed that AFA should be used when a situation is viewed as too complicated or the outcomes as too uncertain to trust a single outcome evaluation. It is used in highly ambiguous situations.
Peter Schwartz said, "Scenarios are stories about the way the world might turn out tomorrow, stories that can help us recognize and adapt to our environment." He also said, "the future is plural"
Analysis offers a way for analysts to map out what might occur in the future.
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