Please help me with question 8.12.
8.11. This problem requires a student to assess a subjective CDF for his or her score in the decision analysis course. Thus, answers will vary considerably, depending on personal assessments. For illustrative purposes, assume that the student assesses the 0.05, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, and 0.95 fractiles: x0.05 =71 x0.25 = 81 x0.50 = 0.87 x0.75 = 89 x0.95 = 93 These assessments can be used to create a subjective CDF: 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 60 70 80 90 100 To use these judgments in deciding whether to drop the course, we can use either bracket medians or the Pearson-Tukey method. The Pearson-Tukey method approximates the expected DA score as: EP-T(DA Score) = 0.185 (71) + 0.63 (87) + 0.185 (93) = 85.15. Assume that the student has a GPA of 2.7. Using Ep_T(DA Score) = 85.15 to calculate expected salary, E(Salary | Drop Course) = $4000 (2.7) + $16,000 = $26,800E(Salary | Don't drop) = 0.6 ($4000 x 2.7) + 0.4 ($170 x Ep_T(DA Score)) + $16,000 =0.6 ($4000 x 2.7) + 0.4 ($170 * 85.15) + $16,000 = $28, 270. Thus, the optimal choice is not to drop the course. To use the bracket median approach, we first determine that bracket medians for four equal-probability intervals would be approximately 75, 83, 88, and 92. 1.00- 0.75+ 0.50- 0.25- 60 70 80 90 100 75 83 88 92 Thus, the bracket-median approximation would be EBM(DA Score) = 0.25 (75) + 0.25 (83) + 0.25 (88) + 0.25 (92) = 84.5 Using this in calculating expected salaries: E(Salary | Drop Course) = $4000 (2.7) + $16,000 = $26,800 E(Salary | Don't drop) = 0.6 ($4000 x 2.7) + 0.4 ($170 x EBM(DA Score)) + $16,000 =0.6 ($4000 x 2.7) + 0.4 ($170 x 84.5) + $16,000 - $28, 226. Again, the conclusion is not to drop the course.Question 8.12 Look again at Problem 8.11, which concerns whether you should drop your decision-analysis course. Estimate EVPI for your score in the course