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Ch 13 and 14 Problems Mailings Review View Title An internal audit by the IT Department at ANRON Technologies revealed employees receive an average of two emails per hour. Assume the arrival of emails is approximated by the Poisson distribution. 2. What is the probably that Mr. Smith, the CEO, received exactly one email between 4 and 5 p.m. on Tuesday? What is the probability he will receive five or more emails during the same period? What is the probability he will he did not receive any emails during the same period? a. b. c. Bayes Theorem Problems A clothing goods company operates retail stores in the Chicago and DeKalb areas. Customers were asked to rate their shopping experience. The results are summarized in the table below: 3. Experience Percentage Poor Average Good 15 45 40 Consider the following facts 67% of the customers who rated their store Poor came from the Cicero area 36% of the customers who rated their store Average came from the Cicero area 30% of the customers * who rated their store Good came from the Cicero area Use Bayes Theorem to determine the probability that a customer who shopped clothing stores in the Cicero area rated his or her experience Good 4. In a lie-detector test, an individual is asked to answer a series of questions while connected to a polygraph machine. This instrument measures and records several physiological responses of the individual on the basis that false answers will produce distinctive measurements. Assume that 99% of the individuals who go in for the polygraph test tell the truth. These tests are consideredt0bs 95% reliable, in other words, there is a 9S% chance that the test wil, detect a lie if an individual actually lies. Let there also be a 0.5% chance that the test erroneously detects a lie even when the individual is telling the truth. An individual has just taken the polygraph and the test detected a lie. What is the probability that the individual was actually telling the truth