Please help solve the Analytics Exercise 18-1 (Algo)

Analytics Exercise 18-1 (Algo)

Starbucks has a large, global supply chain that must efficiently supply over 17,000 stores. Although the stores might appear to be very similar, they are actually very different. Depending on the location of the store, its size, and the profile of the customers served, Starbucks management configures the store offerings to take maximum advantage of the space available and customer preferences.

Starbucks' actual distribution system is much more complex, but for the purpose of our exercise let's focus on a single item that is currently distributed through five distribution centers in the United States. Our item is a logo-branded coffeemaker that is sold at some of the larger retail stores. The coffeemaker has been a steady seller over the years due to its reliability and rugged construction. Starbucks does not consider this a seasonal product, but there is some variability in demand. Demand for the product over the past 13 weeks is shown in the following table. (week 1 is the week before week 1 in the table, 2 is two weeks before week 1, etc.).

Management would like you to experiment with some forecasting models to determine what should be used in a new system to be implemented. The new system is programmed to use one of two forecasting models: simple moving average or exponential smoothing.

WEEK 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Atlanta 46 32 33 57 34 34 47 35 34 55 33 21 57 45 35 25 56 40

Boston 61 22 44 47 33 37 32 48 41 49 48 50 24 67 41 36 40 50

Chicago 52 26 69 35 43 43 35 27 48 47 66 64 30 26 88 34 44 46

Dallas 33 28 35 54 43 28 30 35 41 45 55 65 62 45 38 34 38 42

LA 38 42 46 36 37 39 43 45 46 48 65 43 34 39 40 45 50 50

Tota l230 150 227 229 190 181 187 190 210 244 267 243 207 222 242 174 228 228

a.Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five weeks' and three weeks' past data.(Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

3-week MA

Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Total

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

5-week MA

Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Total

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

b.Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks using the overall (at the end of the 13 weeks) mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria.(Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round all answers to 2 decimal places. Enter "MAPE" answers as a percentage rounded to 2 decimal places.)

ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Avg of DC's

3-week MA

MAD

MAPE

TS

5-week MA

MAD

MAPE

TS