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Please help understand and answer the questions in the first image based on the data in the following images Thank you Ticker STLD Date 10/8/20
Please help understand and answer the questions in the first image based on the data in the following images
Thank you
Ticker STLD Date 10/8/20 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis - Steel Dynamics, Inc. ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Exchange NASDAQ Steel Dynamics, Inc. - DCF Assumptions & Output: Use Multiples Method for TV? Yes Company Name: Current Share Price: Steel Dynamics, Inc. $ 28.89 Effective Tax Rate: Discount Rate (WACC): 22.6% 8.5% PV of Terminal Value: Sum of PV of Free Cash Flows: Implied Enterprise Value: 4,493.4 3,124.7 7,618.1 $ % of Implied EV from Terminal Value: 59.0% Baseline Terminal EBITDA Multiple: Baseline Terminal Value: Implied Terminal FCF Growth Rate: $ 3.79 x 6,753.18 (4.3%) Less: Net Debt: Implied Equity Value: Diluted Shares Outstanding: 1,352.9 6,265.2 210.365 Baseline Terminal FCF Growth Rate: Baseline Terminal Value: Implied Terminal EBITDA Multiple: $ 0.5% 11,377.9 6.4 x $ 29.78 Implied Share Price from DCF: Premium / (Discount) to Current: 3.1% Historical 2018 Projected 2022 Steel Dynamics, Inc. - FCF Projections: 2017 2019 2020 2021 2023 2024 $ Revenue: Revenue Growth Rate: Operating Income: Operating Margin: 9,539.0 $ 25.6% 1,067.0 11.2% 11,822.0 $ 23.9% 1,722.0 14.6% 10,465.0 $ (11.5%) 987.0 9.4% 9,064.8 $ (13.4%) 1,063.1 11.7% 9,523.5 $ 11,215.8 $ 11,776.6 $ 12,129.9 5.1% 17.8% 5.0% 3.0% 1,116.9 1,315.4 1,381.1 1,422.6 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% Less: Taxes, Excluding Effect of Interest: (362.8) (585.5) (335.6) (361.5) (379.7) (447.2) (469.6) (483.7) Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT): 704.2 1,136.5 651.4 701.6 737.1 868.1 911.5 938.9 299.0 3.1% 317.2 2.7% 321.1 3.1% 268.5 3.0% 282.1 3.0% 332.2 3.0% 348.8 3.0% 359.3 3.0% - 38.1 Adjustments for Non-Cash Charges: Depreciation & Amortization: % Revenue: Impairment Charges: Equity-Based Compensation: % Revenue: Deferred Income Taxes: % Book Taxes on Income Statement: (Gain) / Loss on PP&E Disposal: Total Non-Cash Adjustments: 36.3 0.4% 44.9 0.4% 47.1 0.4% 48.5 0.4% 0.4% 36.0 0.4% (135.9) (85.7%) 43.0 0.4% 61.8 100.0% 48.0 0.5% 51.7 52.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 199.1 422.0 420.8 304.8 320.2 377.1 395.9 407.8 Changes in Working Capital: Decrease / Increase) in Accounts Receivable: Decrease / (Increase) in Inventory: Decrease / (Increase) in Other Assets: Increase / (Decrease) in Accounts Payable: Increase / (Decrease) in Accrued Expenses: Increase / (Decrease) in Income Tax Payable: Net Change in Working Capital: % Change in Revenue: % Revenue: (139.1) (242.9) 4.0 96.1 36.0 (33.9) (279.8) (15.9%) (2.9%) (145.9) (246.2) (3.5) 37.9 69.8 26.5 (261.4) (11.4%) (2.2%) 237.8 217.9 13.7 (86.4) (74.3) (12.1) 296.6 (21.9%) 2.8% 70.0 (5.0%) 0.8% (22.9) (5.0%) (0.2%) (84.6) (5.0%) (0.8%) (28.0) (5.0%) (0.2%) (17.7) (5.0%) (0.1%) Less: Capital Expenditures: % Revenue: (164.9) 1.7% (239.4) 2.0% (451.9) 4.3% (317.3) 3.5% (333.3) 3.5% (392.6) 3.5% (412.2) 3.5% (424.5) 3.5% 458.6 $ Unlevered Free Cash Flow: Growth Rate: $ N/A 1,057.7 $ 130.6% 916.9 $ (13.3%) 759.1 $ (17.2%) 701.1 $ (7.7%) 768.0 $ 9.6% 867.2 $ 12.9% 904.5 4.3% EBITDA: Growth Rate: $ N/A 1,366.0 $ 2,039.2 $ 49.3% 1,308.1 $ (35.9%) 1,331.6 $ 1.8% 1,399.0 $ 5.1% 1,647.6 $ 17.8% 1,729.9 $ 5.0% 1,781.8 3.0% Sensitivity - Implied Share Price from DCF Analysis - Long-Term FCF Growth Rate vs. Discount Rate (WACC): $ 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% Discount Rate (WACC): (1.5%) 31.93 $ 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 (0.5%) 31.93 $ 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 Terminal FCF Growth Rate: 1.5% 2.5% 31.93 $ 31.93 $ 31.19 31.19 30.47 30.47 29.77 29.77 29.08 29.08 28.42 28.42 27.77 27.77 27.13 27.13 26.51 26.51 0.5% 31.93 $ 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 3.5% 31.93 $ 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 4.5% 31.93 $ 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 5.5% 31.93 $ 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 6.5% 31.93 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 Sensitivity - Implied Share Price from DCF Analysis - Year 5 Revenue Growth Rate vs. Year 5 Operating (EBIT) Margin: $ Year 5 Operating Margin: 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% 13.5% 14.0% 14.5% 15.0% (3.0%) 27.31 $ 28.11 28.92 29.72 30.53 31.33 32.13 32.94 -2.0% 27.52 $ 28.33 29.14 29.95 30.76 31.58 32.39 33.20 34.01 (1.0%) 27.72 $ 28.54 29.36 30.18 31.00 31.82 32.64 33.46 34.28 Year 5 Revenue Growth Rate: 1.0% 27.93 $ 28.13 $ 28.75 28.97 29.58 29.80 30.41 30.64 31.24 31.48 32.07 32.32 32.90 33.15 33.73 33.99 34.56 2.0% 28.34 $ 29.18 30.03 30.87 31.72 32.56 33.41 34.25 35.10 3.0% 28.54 $ 29.39 30.25 31.10 31.95 32.81 33.66 34.52 35.37 4.0% 28.75 $ 29.61 30.47 31.33 32.19 33.05 33.92 34.78 35.64 5.0% 28.95 29.82 30.69 31.56 32.43 33.30 34.17 35.04 35.91 33.74 34.83 Ticker STLD Date 10/8/20 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis - Steel Dynamics, Inc. ($ in Millions Except Per Share Data) Exchange NASDAQ Steel Dynamics, Inc. - DCF Assumptions & Output: Use Multiples Method for TV? Yes Company Name: Current Share Price: Steel Dynamics, Inc. $ 28.89 Effective Tax Rate: Discount Rate (WACC): 22.6% 8.5% PV of Terminal Value: Sum of PV of Free Cash Flows: Implied Enterprise Value: 4,493.4 3,124.7 7,618.1 $ % of Implied EV from Terminal Value: 59.0% Baseline Terminal EBITDA Multiple: Baseline Terminal Value: Implied Terminal FCF Growth Rate: $ 3.79 x 6,753.18 (4.3%) Less: Net Debt: Implied Equity Value: Diluted Shares Outstanding: 1,352.9 6,265.2 210.365 Baseline Terminal FCF Growth Rate: Baseline Terminal Value: Implied Terminal EBITDA Multiple: $ 0.5% 11,377.9 6.4 x $ 29.78 Implied Share Price from DCF: Premium / (Discount) to Current: 3.1% Historical 2018 Projected 2022 Steel Dynamics, Inc. - FCF Projections: 2017 2019 2020 2021 2023 2024 $ Revenue: Revenue Growth Rate: Operating Income: Operating Margin: 9,539.0 $ 25.6% 1,067.0 11.2% 11,822.0 $ 23.9% 1,722.0 14.6% 10,465.0 $ (11.5%) 987.0 9.4% 9,064.8 $ (13.4%) 1,063.1 11.7% 9,523.5 $ 11,215.8 $ 11,776.6 $ 12,129.9 5.1% 17.8% 5.0% 3.0% 1,116.9 1,315.4 1,381.1 1,422.6 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% Less: Taxes, Excluding Effect of Interest: (362.8) (585.5) (335.6) (361.5) (379.7) (447.2) (469.6) (483.7) Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT): 704.2 1,136.5 651.4 701.6 737.1 868.1 911.5 938.9 299.0 3.1% 317.2 2.7% 321.1 3.1% 268.5 3.0% 282.1 3.0% 332.2 3.0% 348.8 3.0% 359.3 3.0% - 38.1 Adjustments for Non-Cash Charges: Depreciation & Amortization: % Revenue: Impairment Charges: Equity-Based Compensation: % Revenue: Deferred Income Taxes: % Book Taxes on Income Statement: (Gain) / Loss on PP&E Disposal: Total Non-Cash Adjustments: 36.3 0.4% 44.9 0.4% 47.1 0.4% 48.5 0.4% 0.4% 36.0 0.4% (135.9) (85.7%) 43.0 0.4% 61.8 100.0% 48.0 0.5% 51.7 52.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 199.1 422.0 420.8 304.8 320.2 377.1 395.9 407.8 Changes in Working Capital: Decrease / Increase) in Accounts Receivable: Decrease / (Increase) in Inventory: Decrease / (Increase) in Other Assets: Increase / (Decrease) in Accounts Payable: Increase / (Decrease) in Accrued Expenses: Increase / (Decrease) in Income Tax Payable: Net Change in Working Capital: % Change in Revenue: % Revenue: (139.1) (242.9) 4.0 96.1 36.0 (33.9) (279.8) (15.9%) (2.9%) (145.9) (246.2) (3.5) 37.9 69.8 26.5 (261.4) (11.4%) (2.2%) 237.8 217.9 13.7 (86.4) (74.3) (12.1) 296.6 (21.9%) 2.8% 70.0 (5.0%) 0.8% (22.9) (5.0%) (0.2%) (84.6) (5.0%) (0.8%) (28.0) (5.0%) (0.2%) (17.7) (5.0%) (0.1%) Less: Capital Expenditures: % Revenue: (164.9) 1.7% (239.4) 2.0% (451.9) 4.3% (317.3) 3.5% (333.3) 3.5% (392.6) 3.5% (412.2) 3.5% (424.5) 3.5% 458.6 $ Unlevered Free Cash Flow: Growth Rate: $ N/A 1,057.7 $ 130.6% 916.9 $ (13.3%) 759.1 $ (17.2%) 701.1 $ (7.7%) 768.0 $ 9.6% 867.2 $ 12.9% 904.5 4.3% EBITDA: Growth Rate: $ N/A 1,366.0 $ 2,039.2 $ 49.3% 1,308.1 $ (35.9%) 1,331.6 $ 1.8% 1,399.0 $ 5.1% 1,647.6 $ 17.8% 1,729.9 $ 5.0% 1,781.8 3.0% Sensitivity - Implied Share Price from DCF Analysis - Long-Term FCF Growth Rate vs. Discount Rate (WACC): $ 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% Discount Rate (WACC): (1.5%) 31.93 $ 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 (0.5%) 31.93 $ 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 Terminal FCF Growth Rate: 1.5% 2.5% 31.93 $ 31.93 $ 31.19 31.19 30.47 30.47 29.77 29.77 29.08 29.08 28.42 28.42 27.77 27.77 27.13 27.13 26.51 26.51 0.5% 31.93 $ 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 3.5% 31.93 $ 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 4.5% 31.93 $ 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 5.5% 31.93 $ 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 6.5% 31.93 31.19 30.47 29.77 29.08 28.42 27.77 27.13 26.51 Sensitivity - Implied Share Price from DCF Analysis - Year 5 Revenue Growth Rate vs. Year 5 Operating (EBIT) Margin: $ Year 5 Operating Margin: 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% 13.5% 14.0% 14.5% 15.0% (3.0%) 27.31 $ 28.11 28.92 29.72 30.53 31.33 32.13 32.94 -2.0% 27.52 $ 28.33 29.14 29.95 30.76 31.58 32.39 33.20 34.01 (1.0%) 27.72 $ 28.54 29.36 30.18 31.00 31.82 32.64 33.46 34.28 Year 5 Revenue Growth Rate: 1.0% 27.93 $ 28.13 $ 28.75 28.97 29.58 29.80 30.41 30.64 31.24 31.48 32.07 32.32 32.90 33.15 33.73 33.99 34.56 2.0% 28.34 $ 29.18 30.03 30.87 31.72 32.56 33.41 34.25 35.10 3.0% 28.54 $ 29.39 30.25 31.10 31.95 32.81 33.66 34.52 35.37 4.0% 28.75 $ 29.61 30.47 31.33 32.19 33.05 33.92 34.78 35.64 5.0% 28.95 29.82 30.69 31.56 32.43 33.30 34.17 35.04 35.91 33.74 34.83Step by Step Solution
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