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Please include perfect info decision tree You own property that is in demand. You can develop the land yourself for $12 million. Your analytics model
Please include perfect info decision tree
You own property that is in demand. You can develop the land yourself for $12 million. Your analytics model predicts that if you develop yourself, there is a 25% chance demand will be moderate and it will have gross value of $30 million, a 40% chance demand will be low and it will have gross value of $10 million, and a 35% chance demand will be high. If demand is high, your model predicts a 30% chance it will have gross value of $50 million, and a 70% chance it will have gross value of $150 million. An alternative to developing yourself is to put your land up for sale to other developers. If you do this, your agent predicts a 60% chance it will sell for $30 million, and a 40% chance it will sell for $60 million. After evaluating your options, as an expected value decision maker, you make the optimal decision to put the land up for sale and expect to earn $42 million. Genie Analytics approaches you with their patented ability to perfectly predict the future. What is the maximum you would be willing to pay Genie for their perfect information? That is, what is EVPI? Please answer in $millions, and answer to 2 decimal places You own property that is in demand. You can develop the land yourself for $12 million. Your analytics model predicts that if you develop yourself, there is a 25% chance demand will be moderate and it will have gross value of $30 million, a 40% chance demand will be low and it will have gross value of $10 million, and a 35% chance demand will be high. If demand is high, your model predicts a 30% chance it will have gross value of $50 million, and a 70% chance it will have gross value of $150 million. An alternative to developing yourself is to put your land up for sale to other developers. If you do this, your agent predicts a 60% chance it will sell for $30 million, and a 40% chance it will sell for $60 million. After evaluating your options, as an expected value decision maker, you make the optimal decision to put the land up for sale and expect to earn $42 million. Genie Analytics approaches you with their patented ability to perfectly predict the future. What is the maximum you would be willing to pay Genie for their perfect information? That is, what is EVPI? Please answer in $millions, and answer to 2 decimal placesStep by Step Solution
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