Please pay attention to the pattern of returns for T-bills as it is all positive, and Stocks and T-bonds positiveegative (See the attachment). The average rates (Arithmetic or geometric) have been higher in the early years up to 1960, then lower and negative in the 2000-2010. Your take and thought on the subject.
1. What is the average geometric return over 1990-2000 on stocks, bonds , and bills?
Geometric return=[(1+r1)(1+r2)...(1+rn)]^1-1
2. What is the arithmetic average over 1990-2000 on stocks, bonds, and bills?
Arithmetic average= (r1+r2+...... rn)
where r1, r2, rn are returns on the stock in 1, 2and nth period.
Annual returns stocks bonds bills 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 Year 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 Stocks 43.81% 8.30% 25.12% 43.84% 8.64% 49.98% 1.19% 46.74% 31.94% 35.34% 29.28% 1.10% 10.67% 12.77% 19.17% 25.06% 19.03% 35.82% 8.43% 5.20% 5.70% 18.30% 30.81% 23.68% 18.15% 1.21% 52.56% 32.60% 7.44% 10.46% 43.72% 12.06% 0.34% 26.64% 8.81% 22.61% 16.42% 12.40% 9.97% 23.80% 10.81% T.Bills 3.08% 3.16% 4.55% 2.31% 1.07% 0.96% 0.32% 0.18% 0.17% 0.30% 0.08% 0.04% 0.03% 0.08% 0.34% 0.38% 0.38% 0.38% 0.38% 0.57% 1.02% 1.10% 1.17% 1.48% 1.67% 1.89% 0.96% 1.66% 2.56% 3.23% 1.78% 3.26% 3.05% 2.27% 2.78% 3.11% 3.51% 3.90% 4.84% 4.33% 5.26% compound value of $100 T.Bonds 0.84% 4.20% 4.54% 2.56% 8.79% 1.86% 7.96% 4.47% 5.02% 1.38% 4.21% 4.41% 5.40% 2.02% 2.29% 2.49% 2.58% 3.80% 3.13% 0.92% 1.95% 4.66% 0.43% 0.30% 2.27% 4.14% 3.29% 1.34% 2.26% 6.80% 2.10% 2.65% 11.64% 2.06% 5.69% 1.68% 3.73% 0.72% 2.91% 1.58% 3.27% Stocks T.Bills T.Bonds $ 143.81 $ 103.08 $ 100.84 $ 131.88 $ 106.34 $ 105.07 $ 98.75 $ 111.18 $ 109.85 $ 55.46 $ 113.74 $ 107.03 $ 50.66 $ 114.96 $ 116.44 $ 75.99 $ 116.06 $ 118.60 $ 75.09 $ 116.44 $ 128.05 $ 110.18 $ 116.64 $ 133.78 $ 145.38 $ 116.84 $ 140.49 $ 94.00 $ 117.19 $ 142.43 $ 121.53 $ 117.29 $ 148.43 $ 120.20 $ 117.33 $ 154.98 $ 107.37 $ 117.36 $ 163.35 $ 93.66 $ 117.46 $ 160.04 $ 111.61 $ 117.85 $ 163.72 $ 139.59 $ 118.30 $ 167.79 $ 166.15 $ 118.75 $ 172.12 $ 225.67 $ 119.20 $ 178.67 $ 206.65 $ 119.65 $ 184.26 $ 217.39 $ 120.33 $ 185.95 $ 229.79 $ 121.56 $ 189.58 $ 271.85 $ 122.90 $ 198.42 $ 355.60 $ 124.34 $ 199.27 $ 439.80 $ 126.18 $ 198.68 $ 519.62 $ 128.29 $ 203.19 $ 513.35 $ 130.72 $ 211.61 $ 783.18 $ 131.98 $ 218.57 $ 1,038.47 $ 134.17 $ 215.65 $ 1,115.73 $ 137.60 $ 210.79 $ 999.05 $ 142.04 $ 225.11 $ 1,435.84 $ 144.57 $ 220.39 $ 1,608.95 $ 149.27 $ 214.56 $ 1,614.37 $ 153.82 $ 239.53 $ 2,044.40 $ 157.30 $ 244.46 $ 1,864.26 $ 161.67 $ 258.38 $ 2,285.80 $ 166.70 $ 262.74 $ 2,661.02 $ 172.54 $ 272.53 $ 2,990.97 $ 179.28 $ 274.49 $ 2,692.74 $ 187.95 $ 282.47 $ 3,333.69 $ 196.10 $ 278.01 $ 3,694.23 $ 206.41 $ 287.11 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 8.24% 6.56% 5.01% $ 3,389.77 $ 219.96 $ 272.71 3.56% 6.69% 16.75% $ 3,510.49 $ 234.66 $ 318.41 14.22% 4.54% 9.79% $ 4,009.72 $ 245.32 $ 349.57 18.76% 3.95% 2.82% $ 4,761.76 $ 255.01 $ 359.42 14.31% 6.73% 3.66% $ 4,080.44 $ 272.16 $ 372.57 25.90% 7.78% 1.99% $ 3,023.54 $ 293.33 $ 379.98 37.00% 5.99% 3.61% $ 4,142.10 $ 310.90 $ 393.68 23.83% 4.97% 15.98% $ 5,129.20 $ 326.35 $ 456.61 6.98% 5.13% 1.29% $ 4,771.20 $ 343.09 $ 462.50 6.51% 6.93% 0.78% $ 5,081.77 $ 366.87 $ 458.90 18.52% 9.94% 0.67% $ 6,022.89 $ 403.33 $ 461.98 31.74% 11.22% 2.99% $ 7,934.26 $ 448.58 $ 448.17 4.70% 14.30% 8.20% $ 7,561.16 $ 512.73 $ 484.91 20.42% 11.01% 32.81% $ 9,105.08 $ 569.18 $ 644.04 22.34% 8.45% 3.20% $ 11,138.90 $ 617.26 $ 664.65 6.15% 9.61% 13.73% $ 11,823.51 $ 676.60 $ 755.92 31.24% 7.49% 25.71% $ 15,516.60 $ 727.26 $ 950.29 18.49% 6.04% 24.28% $ 18,386.33 $ 771.15 $ 1,181.06 5.81% 5.72% 4.96% $ 19,455.08 $ 815.27 $ 1,122.47 16.54% 6.45% 8.22% $ 22,672.40 $ 867.86 $ 1,214.78 31.48% 8.11% 17.69% $ 29,808.58 $ 938.24 $ 1,429.72 3.06% 7.55% 6.24% $ 28,895.11 $ 1,009.08 $ 1,518.87 30.23% 5.61% 15.00% $ 37,631.51 $ 1,065.69 $ 1,746.77 7.49% 3.41% 9.36% $ 40,451.51 $ 1,101.98 $ 1,910.30 9.97% 2.98% 14.21% $ 44,483.33 $ 1,134.84 $ 2,181.77 1.33% 3.99% 8.04% $ 45,073.14 $ 1,180.07 $ 2,006.43 37.20% 5.52% 23.48% $ 61,838.19 $ 1,245.15 $ 2,477.55 23.82% 5.02% 1.43% $ 76,566.48 $ 1,307.68 $ 2,512.94 31.86% 5.05% 9.94% $ 100,958.71 $ 1,373.76 $ 2,762.71 28.34% 4.73% 14.92% $ 129,568.35 $ 1,438.70 $ 3,174.95 20.89% 4.51% 8.25% $ 156,629.15 $ 1,503.58 $ 2,912.88 9.03% 5.76% 16.66% $ 142,482.69 $ 1,590.23 $ 3,398.03 11.85% 3.67% 5.57% $ 125,598.83 $ 1,648.63 $ 3,587.37 21.97% 1.66% 15.12% $ 98,009.73 $ 1,675.96 $ 4,129.65 28.36% 1.03% 0.38% $ 125,801.18 $ 1,693.22 $ 4,145.15 10.74% 1.23% 4.49% $ 139,315.72 $ 1,714.00 $ 4,331.30 4.83% 3.01% 2.87% $ 146,050.90 $ 1,765.59 $ 4,455.50 15.61% 4.68% 1.96% $ 168,853.19 $ 1,848.18 $ 4,542.87 5.48% 4.64% 10.21% $ 178,114.34 $ 1,933.98 $ 5,006.69 36.55% 1.59% 20.10% $ 113,009.37 $ 1,964.64 $ 6,013.10 25.94% 0.14% 11.12% $ 142,318.62 $ 1,967.29 $ 5,344.65 14.82% 0.13% 8.46% $ 163,411.79 $ 1,969.84 $ 5,796.96 2.07% 0.03% 16.04% $ 166,787.51 $ 1,970.44 $ 6,726.52 Risk Premium Arithmetic Average Stocks T.BillsStocks T.Bonds 19282011 11.20% 19622011 10.60% 20022011 4.93% 3.66% 5.22% 1.81% 5.41% 7.24% 6.85% Geometric Average 19282011 9.23% 3.61% 19622011 9.20% 5.19% 20022011 2.88% 1.80% 5.14% 6.85% 6.49% [1] Aswath Damodaran: ST: Short term (Treasury bill) LT: Long term (Treasury bond) 7.55% 5.79% 5.38% 3.36% 3.12% 1.92% Risk Premium Stocks T.BillsStocks T.Bonds 5.62% 4.10% 4.02% 2.35% 1.08% 3.61% DATE skewness 7.2317E-008 -9.421E-009 -7.088E-008 -2.614E-007 -0.00000001 1.1834E-007 -1.979E-009 9.2301E-008 2.0484E-008 -1.548E-007 1.4096E-008 -1.928E-009 -1.378E-008 -1.862E-008 1.7176E-009 6.9376E-009 1.6461E-009 3.2879E-008 -9.632E-009 -1.145E-010 -7.693E-011 1.3049E-009 1.7576E-008 5.2768E-009 1.2413E-009 -1.990E-009 1.4228E-007 2.2322E-008 -1.003E-011 -1.335E-008 7.1754E-008 3.9639E-011 -1.229E-009 9.2292E-009 -1.027E-008 4.1892E-009 6.5006E-010 5.5711E-011 -1.238E-008 5.4093E-009 6.8982E-012 VALUE GDP growth rate 1929 976.1 -0.086159 -0.086159 1930 892 -0.064798 -0.064798 1931 834.2 -0.130664 -0.130664 1932 725.2 -0.012962 -0.012962 1933 715.8 0.108829 0.108829 1934 793.7 0.088824 0.088824 1935 864.2 0.130525 0.130525 1936 977 0.051279 0.051279 1937 1027.1 -0.034369 -0.034369 1938 991.8 0.080762 0.080762 1939 1071.9 0.087695 0.087695 1940 1165.9 0.170769 0.170769 1941 1365 0.184469 0.184469 1942 1616.8 0.163718 0.163718 1943 1881.5 0.080787 0.080787 1944 2033.5 -0.011212 -0.011212 1945 2010.7 -0.109415 -0.109415 1946 1790.7 -0.008991 -0.008991 1947 1774.6 0.04401 0.04401 1948 1852.7 -0.005182 -0.005182 1949 1843.1 0.087407 0.087407 1950 2004.2 0.077387 0.077387 1951 2159.3 0.038299 0.038299 1952 2242 0.04603 0.04603 1953 2345.2 -0.006311 -0.006311 1954 2330.4 0.072005 0.072005 1955 2498.2 0.019774 0.019774 1956 2547.6 0.020097 0.020097 1957 2598.8 -0.009004 -0.009004 1958 2575.4 0.071717 0.071717 1959 2760.1 0.024782 0.024782 1960 2828.5 0.023299 0.023299 1961 2894.4 0.0606 0.0606 1962 3069.8 0.043716 0.043716 1963 3204 0.057865 0.057865 1964 3389.4 0.0642 0.0642 1965 3607 0.065179 0.065179 1966 3842.1 0.025273 0.025273 1967 3939.2 0.048411 0.048411 1968 4129.9 0.031066 0.031066 1969 4258.2 0.001902 0.001902 1970 4266.3 0.033565 0.033565 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 -0.086159 -0.064798 -0.130664 -0.012962 0.108829 0.088824 0.130525 0.051279 -0.034369 0.080762 0.087695 0.170769 0.184469 0.163718 0.080787 -0.011212 -0.109415 -0.008991 0.04401 -0.005182 0.087407 0.077387 0.038299 0.04603 -0.006311 0.072005 0.019774 0.020097 -0.009004 0.071717 0.024782 1.170102 0.036566 s T.Bonds -9.325E-009 -3.188E-010 2.1730E-010 1.5137E-009 -2.281E-008 -7.582E-008 3.7454E-008 5.4428E-009 -7.449E-009 -3.519E-011 1.4022E-009 1.9948E-008 -4.727E-009 2.4505E-009 3.9407E-009 -5.110E-011 1.8648E-008 1.3887E-009 -6.996E-011 6.8315E-010 1.9264E-008 -3.247E-009 1.6197E-008 -9.213E-012 7.0870E-013 -8.623E-010 3.8269E-008 5.4316E-009 2.0268E-008 1.2205E-008 2.7724E-009 -1.065E-008 -1.638E-008 -5.312E-008 1.2244E-008 6.0214E-012 -1.490E-010 4.5418E-010 -9.223E-011 -1.678E-007 8.1601E-009 3.0549E-010 -6.420E-010 -9.473E-008 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4409.5 0.053135 0.053135 43 4643.8 0.057927 0.057927 44 4912.8 -0.005516 -0.005516 45 4885.7 -0.002108 -0.002108 46 4875.4 0.053637 0.053637 47 5136.9 0.045981 0.045981 48 5373.1 0.055778 0.055778 49 5672.8 0.031254 0.031254 50 5850.1 -0.002752 -0.002752 51 5834 0.025386 0.025386 52 5982.1 -0.019425 -0.019425 53 5865.9 0.045176 0.045176 54 6130.9 0.071865 0.071865 55 6571.5 0.041376 0.041376 56 6843.4 0.034647 0.034647 57 7080.5 0.031989 0.031989 58 7307 0.041111 0.041111 59 7607.4 0.035728 0.035728 60 7879.2 0.018771 0.018771 61 8027.1 -0.002342 -0.002342 62 8008.3 0.033927 0.033927 63 8280 0.028527 0.028527 64 8516.2 0.040734 0.040734 65 8863.1 0.025149 0.025149 66 9086 0.037398 0.037398 67 9425.8 0.044569 0.044569 68 9845.9 0.043551 0.043551 69 10274.7 0.048274 0.048274 70 10770.7 0.041381 0.041381 71 11216.4 0.010797 0.010797 72 11337.5 0.018135 0.018135 73 11543.1 0.025409 0.025409 74 11836.4 0.034681 0.034681 75 12246.9 0.03071 0.03071 76 12623 0.026578 0.026578 77 12958.5 0.01913 0.01913 78 13206.4 -0.00337 -0.00337 79 13161.9 -0.030695 -0.030695 80 12757.9 0.023915 0.023915 81 13063 0.018074 0.018074 82 13299.1 2.753671 0.033581 s T.Bonds 0.0606 0.010797 0.043716 0.018135 0.057865 0.025409 0.0642 0.034681 0.065179 0.03071 0.025273 0.026578 0.048411 0.01913 0.031066 -0.00337 0.001902 -0.030695 0.033565 0.023915 0.053135 0.018074 0.057927 0.173364 -0.005516 -0.002108 0.053637 0.045981 0.055778 0.031254 -0.002752 0.025386 -0.019425 0.045176 0.071865 0.041376 0.034647 0.031989 0.041111 0.035728 0.018771 -0.002342 0.033927 0.028527 0.040734 0.025149 0.037398 0.044569 0.043551 0.048274 0.041381 0.010797 1.397703 0.035839 0.01576 1929-69 1970-19992000-2010 -0.086159 0.033565 0.010797 -0.064798 0.053135 0.018135 -0.130664 0.057927 0.025409 -0.012962 -0.005516 0.034681 0.108829 -0.002108 0.03071 0.088824 0.053637 0.026578 0.130525 0.045981 0.01913 0.051279 0.055778 -0.00337 -0.034369 0.031254 -0.030695 0.080762 -0.002752 0.023915 0.087695 0.025386 0.018074 0.170769 -0.019425 0.173364 0.01576 0.184469 0.045176 0.163718 0.071865 0.080787 0.041376 -0.011212 0.034647 -0.109415 0.031989 -0.008991 0.041111 0.04401 0.035728 -0.005182 0.018771 0.087407 -0.002342 0.077387 0.033927 0.038299 0.028527 0.04603 0.040734 -0.006311 0.025149 0.072005 0.037398 0.019774 0.044569 0.020097 0.043551 -0.009004 0.048274 0.071717 0.041381 0.024782 0.988694 0.032956 0.023299 0.0606 0.043716 0.057865 0.0642 0.065179 0.025273 0.048411 0.031066 0.001902 1.591612 0.03882 43.81% 8.30% 25.12% 43.84% 8.64% 49.98% 1.19% 46.74% 31.94% 35.34% 29.28% 1.10% 10.67% 12.77% 19.17% 25.06% 19.03% 35.82% 8.43% 5.20% 5.70% 18.30% 30.81% 23.68% 18.15% 1.21% 52.56% 32.60% 7.44% 10.46% 43.72% 12.06% 0.34% 26.64% 8.81% 22.61% 16.42% 12.40% 9.97% 23.80% 10.81% 8.24% 3.56% 0.3458 -0.1753 -0.3435 -0.5307 -0.1787 0.4075 -0.1042 0.3751 0.2271 -0.4457 0.2005 -0.1033 -0.199 -0.22 0.0994 0.1583 0.098 0.2659 -0.1766 -0.0403 -0.0353 0.0907 0.2158 0.1445 0.0892 -0.1044 0.4333 0.2337 -0.0179 -0.1969 0.3449 0.0283 -0.0889 0.1741 -0.1804 0.1338 0.0719 0.0317 -0.192 0.1457 0.0158 -0.1747 -0.0567 7.2317E-008 -9.421E-009 -7.088E-008 -2.614E-007 -0.00000001 1.1834E-007 -1.979E-009 9.2301E-008 2.0484E-008 -1.548E-007 1.4096E-008 -1.928E-009 -1.378E-008 -1.862E-008 1.7176E-009 6.9376E-009 1.6461E-009 3.2879E-008 -9.632E-009 -1.145E-010 -7.693E-011 1.3049E-009 1.7576E-008 5.2768E-009 1.2413E-009 -1.990E-009 1.4228E-007 2.2322E-008 -1.003E-011 -1.335E-008 7.1754E-008 3.9639E-011 -1.229E-009 9.2292E-009 -1.027E-008 4.1892E-009 6.5006E-010 5.5711E-011 -1.238E-008 5.4093E-009 6.8982E-012 -9.325E-009 -3.188E-010 14.22% 18.76% 14.31% 25.90% 37.00% 23.83% 6.98% 6.51% 18.52% 31.74% 4.70% 20.42% 22.34% 6.15% 31.24% 18.49% 5.81% 16.54% 31.48% 3.06% 30.23% 7.49% 9.97% 1.33% 37.20% 23.82% 31.86% 28.34% 20.89% 9.03% 11.85% 21.97% 28.36% 10.74% 4.83% 15.61% 5.48% 36.55% 25.94% 14.82% 2.07% 0.0499 0.0953 -0.2354 -0.3513 0.2777 0.146 -0.1621 -0.0272 0.0929 0.2251 -0.1393 0.1119 0.1311 -0.0308 0.2201 0.0926 -0.0342 0.0731 0.2225 -0.1229 0.21 -0.0174 0.0074 -0.079 0.2797 0.1459 0.2263 0.1911 0.1166 -0.1826 -0.2108 -0.312 0.1913 0.0151 -0.044 0.0638 -0.0375 -0.4578 0.1671 0.0559 -0.0716 2.1730E-010 1.5137E-009 -2.281E-008 -7.582E-008 3.7454E-008 5.4428E-009 -7.449E-009 -3.519E-011 1.4022E-009 1.9948E-008 -4.727E-009 2.4505E-009 3.9407E-009 -5.110E-011 1.8648E-008 1.3887E-009 -6.996E-011 6.8315E-010 1.9264E-008 -3.247E-009 1.6197E-008 -9.213E-012 7.0870E-013 -8.623E-010 3.8269E-008 5.4316E-009 2.0268E-008 1.2205E-008 2.7724E-009 -1.065E-008 -1.638E-008 -5.312E-008 1.2244E-008 6.0214E-012 -1.490E-010 4.5418E-010 -9.223E-011 -1.678E-007 8.1601E-009 3.0549E-010 -6.420E-010 -9.473E-008 Year Stocks T.Bills T.Bonds 1928 0.4381 0.0308 0.0084 1929 -0.083 0.0316 0.042 1930 -0.2512 0.0455 0.0454 1931 -0.4384 0.0231 -0.0256 1932 -0.0864 0.0107 0.0879 1933 0.4998 0.0096 0.0186 1934 -0.0119 0.0032 0.0796 1935 0.4674 0.0018 0.0447 1936 0.3194 0.0017 0.0502 1937 -0.3534 0.003 0.0138 1938 0.2928 0.0008 0.0421 1939 -0.011 0.0004 0.0441 1940 -0.1067 0.0003 0.054 1941 -0.1277 0.0008 -0.0202 1942 0.1917 0.0034 0.0229 1943 0.2506 0.0038 0.0249 1944 0.1903 0.0038 0.0258 1945 0.3582 0.0038 0.038 1946 -0.0843 0.0038 0.0313 1947 0.052 0.0057 0.0092 1948 0.057 0.0102 0.0195 1949 0.183 0.011 0.0466 1950 0.3081 0.0117 0.0043 1951 0.2368 0.0148 -0.003 1952 0.1815 0.0167 0.0227 1953 -0.0121 0.0189 0.0414 1954 0.5256 0.0096 0.0329 1955 0.326 0.0166 -0.0134 1956 0.0744 0.0256 -0.0226 1957 -0.1046 0.0323 0.068 1958 0.4372 0.0178 -0.021 1959 0.1206 0.0326 -0.0265 1960 0.0034 0.0305 0.1164 1961 0.2664 0.0227 0.0206 1962 -0.0881 0.0278 0.0569 1963 0.2261 0.0311 0.0168 1964 0.1642 0.0351 0.0373 1965 0.124 0.039 0.0072 1966 -0.0997 0.0484 0.0291 1967 0.238 0.0433 -0.0158 1968 0.1081 0.0526 0.0327 1969 -0.0824 0.0656 -0.0501 1970 0.0356 0.0669 0.1675 1971 0.1422 0.0454 0.0979 1972 0.1876 0.0395 0.0282 stocks-T/bond stocks-T.bills 0.4297 0.4073 -0.125 -0.1146 -0.2966 -0.2967 -0.4128 -0.4615 -0.1743 -0.0971 0.4812 0.4902 -0.0915 -0.0151 0.4227 0.4656 0.2692 0.3177 -0.3672 -0.3564 0.2507 0.292 -0.0551 -0.0114 -0.1607 -0.107 -0.1075 -0.1285 0.1688 0.1883 0.2257 0.2468 0.1645 0.1865 0.3202 0.3544 -0.1156 -0.0881 0.0428 0.0463 0.0375 0.0468 0.1364 0.172 0.3038 0.2964 0.2398 0.222 0.1588 0.1648 -0.0535 -0.031 0.4927 0.516 0.3394 0.3094 0.097 0.0488 -0.1726 -0.1369 0.4582 0.4194 0.1471 0.088 -0.113 -0.0271 0.2458 0.2437 -0.145 -0.1159 0.2093 0.195 0.1269 0.1291 0.1168 0.085 -0.1288 -0.1481 0.2538 0.1947 0.0754 0.0555 -0.0323 -0.148 -0.1319 -0.0313 0.0443 0.0968 0.1594 0.1481 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -0.1431 -0.259 0.37 0.2383 -0.0698 0.0651 0.1852 0.3174 -0.047 0.2042 0.2234 0.0615 0.3124 0.1849 0.0581 0.1654 0.3148 -0.0306 0.3023 0.0749 0.0997 0.0133 0.372 0.2382 0.3186 0.2834 0.2089 -0.0903 -0.1185 -0.2197 0.2836 0.1074 0.0483 0.1561 0.0548 -0.3655 0.2594 0.1482 0.0207 0.0673 0.0778 0.0599 0.0497 0.0513 0.0693 0.0994 0.1122 0.143 0.1101 0.0845 0.0961 0.0749 0.0604 0.0572 0.0645 0.0811 0.0755 0.0561 0.0341 0.0298 0.0399 0.0552 0.0502 0.0505 0.0473 0.0451 0.0576 0.0367 0.0166 0.0103 0.0123 0.0301 0.0468 0.0464 0.0159 0.0014 0.0013 0.0003 0.0366 0.0199 0.0361 0.1598 0.0129 -0.0078 0.0067 -0.0299 0.082 0.3281 0.032 0.1373 0.2571 0.2428 -0.0496 0.0822 0.1769 0.0624 0.15 0.0936 0.1421 -0.0804 0.2348 0.0143 0.0994 0.1492 -0.0825 0.1666 0.0557 0.1512 0.0038 0.0449 0.0287 0.0196 0.1021 0.201 -0.1112 0.0846 0.1604 -0.1797 -0.2789 0.3339 0.0785 -0.0827 0.0729 0.1785 0.3473 -0.129 -0.1239 0.1914 -0.0758 0.0553 -0.0579 0.1077 0.0832 0.1379 -0.093 0.1523 -0.0187 -0.0424 0.0937 0.1372 0.2239 0.2192 0.1342 0.2914 -0.2569 -0.1742 -0.3709 0.2798 0.0625 0.0196 0.1365 -0.0473 -0.5665 0.3706 0.0636 -0.1397 -0.2104 -0.3368 0.3101 0.1886 -0.1211 -0.0042 0.0858 0.2052 -0.19 0.0941 0.1389 -0.0346 0.2375 0.1245 0.0009 0.1009 0.2337 -0.1061 0.2462 0.0408 0.0699 -0.0266 0.3168 0.188 0.2681 0.2361 0.1638 -0.1479 -0.1552 -0.2363 0.2733 0.0951 0.0182 0.1093 0.0084 -0.3814 0.258 0.1469 0.0204 Real GDP stocks-T/bond 1 -0.086159 -0.610043 0.4297 2 -0.064798 -0.125 3 -0.130664 -0.2966 4 -0.012962 -0.4128 5 0.108829 -0.1743 6 0.088824 0.4812 7 0.130525 -0.0915 8 0.051279 0.4227 9 -0.034369 0.2692 10 0.080762 -0.3672 11 0.087695 0.2507 12 0.170769 -0.0551 13 0.184469 -0.1607 14 0.163718 -0.1075 15 0.080787 0.1688 16 -0.011212 0.2257 17 -0.109415 0.1645 18 -0.008991 0.3202 19 0.04401 -0.1156 20 -0.005182 0.0428 21 0.087407 0.0375 22 0.077387 0.1364 23 0.038299 0.3038 24 0.04603 0.2398 25 -0.006311 0.1588 26 0.072005 -0.0535 27 0.019774 0.4927 28 0.020097 0.3394 29 -0.009004 0.097 30 0.071717 -0.1726 31 0.024782 0.4582 32 0.023299 0.1471 33 0.0606 3.0538 0.092539 0.043716 0.057865 0.0642 0.065179 0.025273 0.048411 0.031066 0.001902 0.033565 0.053135 0.057927 -0.005516 -0.002108 0.053637 0.045981 0.055778 0.031254 -0.002752 0.025386 -0.019425 0.045176 0.071865 0.041376 0.034647 0.031989 0.041111 0.035728 0.018771 -0.002342 0.033927 0.028527 0.040734 0.025149 0.037398 0.044569 0.043551 0.048274 0.041381 0.010797 0.018135 0.025409 0.034681 0.03071 0.026578 0.01913 -0.00337 -0.030695 0.023915 0.018074
