***PLEASE TAKE YOUR TIME, CAN YOU PLEASE SHOW STEP-BY-STEP IN AN EXCEL SPREADSHEET and show the EXCEL FORMULAS IN THE SPREADSHEET, THANK YOU :)***

1) Consider the monthly International Passenger totals (# of Pass. in 1000s) for an airline provided in the Excel file. Use Excel to perform following analysis.

a) Find the 3-month and 6-month moving averages for all data values and find forecast for October 2022. Find MAD for both forecasts and determine the best moving average forecast.

b) Find the three-month weighted moving average forecasts and find forecast for October 2022 if weights of 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5 are used with highest weights assigned to the latest months. Find MAD and compare with MADs in part (a). Is the weighted MA forecast better than simple moving averages in part a?

c) Use the exponential moving average to find all forecasts and the forecast for October 2022 Assume forecast of 350 for January 2012 and a=0.70. Find MAD and compare to MAD values in parts (a and b).

\begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline Year & Month & Period & # of pass. & Seas. Index & De-seas # of Pass. \\ \hline 2012 & Jan. & 1 & 340 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Feb. & 2 & 348 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Mar & 3 & 365 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Apr & 4 & 361 & & \\ \hline 2012 & May & 5 & 351 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Jun & 6 & 369 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Jul & 7 & 385 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Aug & 8 & 385 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Sep & 9 & 370 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Oct & 10 & 349 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Nov & 11 & 330 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Dec & 12 & 348 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Jan & 13 & 344 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Feb & 14 & 358 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Mar & 15 & 376 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Apr & 16 & 369 & & \\ \hline 2013 & May & 17 & 356 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Jun & 18 & 386 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Jul & 19 & 413 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Aug & 20 & 413 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Sep & 21 & 398 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Oct & 22 & 366 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Nov & 23 & 343 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Dec & 24 & 375 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Jan & 25 & 381 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Feb & 26 & 388 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Mar & 27 & 423 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Apr & 28 & 404 & & \\ \hline 2014 & May & 29 & 415 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Jun & 30 & 423 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Jul & 31 & 449 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Aug & 32 & 449 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Sep & 33 & 430 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Oct & 34 & 403 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Nov & 35 & 383 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Dec & 36 & 408 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Jan & 37 & 414 & & \\ \hline & & & & & \\ \hline \end{tabular} \begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|} \hline 2015 & Feb & 38 & 425 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Mar & 39 & 441 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Apr & 40 & 426 & & \\ \hline 2015 & May & 41 & 429 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Jun & 42 & 473 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Jul & 43 & 488 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Aug & 44 & 503 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Sep & 45 & 461 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Oct & 46 & 439 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Nov & 47 & 415 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Dec & 48 & 443 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Jan & 49 & 445 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Feb & 50 & 445 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Mar & 51 & 495 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Apr & 52 & 494 & & \\ \hline 2016 & May & 53 & 486 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Jun & 54 & 504 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Jul & 55 & 530 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Aug & 56 & 540 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Sep & 57 & 496 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Oct & 58 & 464 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Nov & 59 & 425 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Dec & 60 & 451 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Jan & 61 & 455 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Feb & 62 & 435 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Mar & 63 & 494 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Apr & 64 & 484 & & \\ \hline 2017 & May & 65 & 493 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Jun & 66 & 530 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Jul & 67 & 578 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Aug & 68 & 566 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Sep & 69 & 524 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Oct & 70 & 486 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Nov & 71 & 454 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Dec & 72 & 486 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Jan & 73 & 503 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Feb & 74 & 491 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Mar & 75 & 534 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Apr & 76 & 536 & & \\ \hline 2018 & May & 77 & 538 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Jun & 78 & 594 & & \\ \hline \end{tabular} \begin{tabular}{|l|c|c|c|l|l|} \hline 2018 & Jul & 79 & 655 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Aug & 80 & 634 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Sep & 81 & 590 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Oct & 82 & 543 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Nov & 83 & 496 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Dec & 84 & 548 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Jan & 85 & 555 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Feb & 86 & 546 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Mar & 87 & 596 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Apr & 88 & 591 & & \\ \hline 2019 & May & 89 & 598 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Jun & 90 & 668 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Jul & 91 & 716 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Aug & 92 & 706 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Sep & 93 & 644 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Oct & 94 & 583 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Nov & 95 & 539 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Dec & 96 & 583 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Jan & 97 & 594 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Feb & 98 & 576 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Mar & 99 & 645 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Apr & 100 & 635 & & \\ \hline 2020 & May & 101 & 644 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Jun & 102 & 728 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Jul & 103 & 781 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Aug & 104 & 784 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Sep & 105 & 705 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Oct & 106 & 634 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Nov & 107 & 581 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Dec & 108 & 620 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Jan & 109 & 625 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Feb & 110 & 598 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Mar & 111 & 653 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Apr & 112 & 635 & & \\ \hline 2021 & May & 113 & 654 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Jun & 114 & 744 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Jul & 115 & 814 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Aug & 116 & 831 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Sep & 117 & 705 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Oct & 118 & 649 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Nov & 119 & 588 & & \\ \hline \end{tabular} \begin{tabular}{|l|c|l|l|l|l|} 2021 & Dec & 120 & 621 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Jan & 121 & 650 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Feb & 122 & 628 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Mar & 123 & 708 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Apr & 124 & 695 & & \\ \hline 2022 & May & 125 & 725 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Jun & 126 & 790 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Jul & 127 & 885 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Aug & 128 & 850 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Sep. & 129 & 805 & & \\ \hline \end{tabular} \begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline Year & Month & Period & # of pass. & Seas. Index & De-seas # of Pass. \\ \hline 2012 & Jan. & 1 & 340 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Feb. & 2 & 348 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Mar & 3 & 365 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Apr & 4 & 361 & & \\ \hline 2012 & May & 5 & 351 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Jun & 6 & 369 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Jul & 7 & 385 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Aug & 8 & 385 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Sep & 9 & 370 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Oct & 10 & 349 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Nov & 11 & 330 & & \\ \hline 2012 & Dec & 12 & 348 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Jan & 13 & 344 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Feb & 14 & 358 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Mar & 15 & 376 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Apr & 16 & 369 & & \\ \hline 2013 & May & 17 & 356 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Jun & 18 & 386 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Jul & 19 & 413 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Aug & 20 & 413 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Sep & 21 & 398 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Oct & 22 & 366 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Nov & 23 & 343 & & \\ \hline 2013 & Dec & 24 & 375 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Jan & 25 & 381 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Feb & 26 & 388 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Mar & 27 & 423 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Apr & 28 & 404 & & \\ \hline 2014 & May & 29 & 415 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Jun & 30 & 423 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Jul & 31 & 449 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Aug & 32 & 449 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Sep & 33 & 430 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Oct & 34 & 403 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Nov & 35 & 383 & & \\ \hline 2014 & Dec & 36 & 408 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Jan & 37 & 414 & & \\ \hline & & & & & \\ \hline \end{tabular} \begin{tabular}{|l|l|l|l|l|l|} \hline 2015 & Feb & 38 & 425 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Mar & 39 & 441 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Apr & 40 & 426 & & \\ \hline 2015 & May & 41 & 429 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Jun & 42 & 473 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Jul & 43 & 488 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Aug & 44 & 503 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Sep & 45 & 461 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Oct & 46 & 439 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Nov & 47 & 415 & & \\ \hline 2015 & Dec & 48 & 443 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Jan & 49 & 445 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Feb & 50 & 445 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Mar & 51 & 495 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Apr & 52 & 494 & & \\ \hline 2016 & May & 53 & 486 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Jun & 54 & 504 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Jul & 55 & 530 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Aug & 56 & 540 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Sep & 57 & 496 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Oct & 58 & 464 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Nov & 59 & 425 & & \\ \hline 2016 & Dec & 60 & 451 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Jan & 61 & 455 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Feb & 62 & 435 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Mar & 63 & 494 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Apr & 64 & 484 & & \\ \hline 2017 & May & 65 & 493 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Jun & 66 & 530 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Jul & 67 & 578 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Aug & 68 & 566 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Sep & 69 & 524 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Oct & 70 & 486 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Nov & 71 & 454 & & \\ \hline 2017 & Dec & 72 & 486 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Jan & 73 & 503 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Feb & 74 & 491 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Mar & 75 & 534 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Apr & 76 & 536 & & \\ \hline 2018 & May & 77 & 538 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Jun & 78 & 594 & & \\ \hline \end{tabular} \begin{tabular}{|l|c|c|c|l|l|} \hline 2018 & Jul & 79 & 655 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Aug & 80 & 634 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Sep & 81 & 590 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Oct & 82 & 543 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Nov & 83 & 496 & & \\ \hline 2018 & Dec & 84 & 548 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Jan & 85 & 555 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Feb & 86 & 546 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Mar & 87 & 596 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Apr & 88 & 591 & & \\ \hline 2019 & May & 89 & 598 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Jun & 90 & 668 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Jul & 91 & 716 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Aug & 92 & 706 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Sep & 93 & 644 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Oct & 94 & 583 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Nov & 95 & 539 & & \\ \hline 2019 & Dec & 96 & 583 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Jan & 97 & 594 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Feb & 98 & 576 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Mar & 99 & 645 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Apr & 100 & 635 & & \\ \hline 2020 & May & 101 & 644 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Jun & 102 & 728 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Jul & 103 & 781 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Aug & 104 & 784 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Sep & 105 & 705 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Oct & 106 & 634 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Nov & 107 & 581 & & \\ \hline 2020 & Dec & 108 & 620 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Jan & 109 & 625 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Feb & 110 & 598 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Mar & 111 & 653 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Apr & 112 & 635 & & \\ \hline 2021 & May & 113 & 654 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Jun & 114 & 744 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Jul & 115 & 814 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Aug & 116 & 831 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Sep & 117 & 705 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Oct & 118 & 649 & & \\ \hline 2021 & Nov & 119 & 588 & & \\ \hline \end{tabular} \begin{tabular}{|l|c|l|l|l|l|} 2021 & Dec & 120 & 621 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Jan & 121 & 650 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Feb & 122 & 628 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Mar & 123 & 708 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Apr & 124 & 695 & & \\ \hline 2022 & May & 125 & 725 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Jun & 126 & 790 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Jul & 127 & 885 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Aug & 128 & 850 & & \\ \hline 2022 & Sep. & 129 & 805 & & \\ \hline \end{tabular}