Please use the case The Morrison Company, the accompanying excel file, and the knowledge you gained during the previous case assignment to conduct a new forecasting and production plan.
Forecasting the current state
- Use the forecasts data for each month in 2010 and plot the data to see its shape. Do this action for both the Pharmaceuticals and Retail lines
- Discuss the forecasting problems as you see it for both product lines Pharmaceuticals and Retail.
- Discuss your finding in one paragraph.
Exhibit 3: Monthly Units Forecast, Planned, and Actual Output, 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Pharmaceutical Line Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Forecast Aggregate production plan Actual 10,750 15,357 14,419 7,679 15,357 12,722 9,214 11,518 16,115 7,679 15,357 16,115 23,804 15,357 10,178 18,429 11,518 11,874 10,750 11,518 11,874 14,589 15,357 13,570 16,893 15,357 11,026 13,054 15,357 16,963 17,661 15,357 14,419 29,179 15,357 15,267 179,680 172,769 164,542 Retail Line Forecast 5,953 5,694 8,800 8,541 9,836 16,306 Aggregate production plan 5,177 6,471 6,471 6,471 9,059 11,647 Actual 4,409 6,224 8,039 6,224 5,964 14,004 Note: Figures represent the number of smart label rolls (1,000 labels per roll) machine capacity 1 machine produces 20,000 units/hr production time per month 8 hr shift * five days a week * 4 weeks = 160 hours/month 11,130 5,177 2,334 5,694 9,059 8,039 8,800 9,059 7,002 14,753 10,871 19,412 125,792 12,942 14,236 19,412 115,180 12,448 14,004 21,005 109,695 Actual output per year 274,237 Monthly Capacity (rolls) = Monthly capacity/machine (rolls)= 4 "personalization" machines (rolls) 32,000 3,200 12,800 Total annual capacity (rolls)= 384,000 Exhibit 3: Monthly Units Forecast, Planned, and Actual Output, 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Pharmaceutical Line Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Forecast Aggregate production plan Actual 10,750 15,357 14,419 7,679 15,357 12,722 9,214 11,518 16,115 7,679 15,357 16,115 23,804 15,357 10,178 18,429 11,518 11,874 10,750 11,518 11,874 14,589 15,357 13,570 16,893 15,357 11,026 13,054 15,357 16,963 17,661 15,357 14,419 29,179 15,357 15,267 179,680 172,769 164,542 Retail Line Forecast 5,953 5,694 8,800 8,541 9,836 16,306 Aggregate production plan 5,177 6,471 6,471 6,471 9,059 11,647 Actual 4,409 6,224 8,039 6,224 5,964 14,004 Note: Figures represent the number of smart label rolls (1,000 labels per roll) machine capacity 1 machine produces 20,000 units/hr production time per month 8 hr shift * five days a week * 4 weeks = 160 hours/month 11,130 5,177 2,334 5,694 9,059 8,039 8,800 9,059 7,002 14,753 10,871 19,412 125,792 12,942 14,236 19,412 115,180 12,448 14,004 21,005 109,695 Actual output per year 274,237 Monthly Capacity (rolls) = Monthly capacity/machine (rolls)= 4 "personalization" machines (rolls) 32,000 3,200 12,800 Total annual capacity (rolls)= 384,000
