Population questions

1. Which of the following statements describes population momentum?

a. A population will continue to grow after its median age reaches 30.

b. A population will continue to grow after fertility declines to replacement-level.

c. A population will continue to grow after its rate of natural increase reaches zero.

2. Which of the following demographic situations leads to population momentum?

a. Increases in life expectancy

b. Young population age structure

c. Elevated fertility rates

3. Which of the following would reduce population growth due to momentum? (choose one)

a. Creating incentives to emigrate among persons over age 50

b. Ensuring that fertility stays at replacement level

c. Enforcing a policy that permits only one birth per female

4. Population projections are best viewed as:

a. Models that illustrate possible future scenarios for a population

b. Guesses about a population's future based on demographers' intuition

c. Predictions of the exact future size and composition of a population

5. The quality of a population projectionis evaluated by its internal validity, which means that it:

a. Predicts future population size accurately

b. Obeys demographic accounting principles (i.e., the balancing equation)

c. Matches the results of previous population projections

6. Which three are the parts of a population projection? (choose three)

a. Population data for benchmark year and prior years

b. Prevalence data for major health conditions in the population

c. Methodology for calculating population size and composition given inputs

d. Assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration

e. Strategy for assessing the accuracy of the projection

f. Consensus about the best fertility rate for the population

7. Why are population projections typically developed and published in sets? (choose all that are correct)

a. To allow for weaknesses in the benchmark population data

b. To illustrate the sensitivity of the results to variations in assumptions

c. To correct for flaws in the projection methodology

d. To demonstrate the range of possible population outcomes

e. To show the degree of uncertainty associated with the projection

f. To acknowledge the role of unforeseen circumstances

g. To gauge the likelihood of potential population outcomes

8. In the context of population projections, the term "variants" refers to: (choose one)

a. A set of projections using the same data and methods, but different assumptions

b. A measure of the amount of error in a population projection

c. A group of population projections developed for a specific purpose

9. If two projections for the same population over the same period produce different results, one of the projections must be inaccurate.

a. True

b. False

10. Some variants in a set of population projections are made with what seem like unrealistic assumptions (e.g., that world fertility falls to replacement level instantly, that net migration is zero). Why are these variants produced? (choose all that are correct)

a. To acknowledge that anything is possible

b. To provide upper and lower bounds for future population size

c. To examine hypothetical, "what if" scenarios

d. To test the robustness of the projection methodology

11. The cohort-component projection method is: (choose one)

a. Avoided by most well-regarded population projections

b. Considered the "gold standard" method for population projections

c. Based on mathematical extrapolation