Question
Post-WWII Annual Returns: Year S&P 500 Stocks 3-month T.Bill 1946 -8.43% 0.38% 1947 5.20% 0.57% 1948 5.70% 1.02% 1949 18.30% 1.10% 1950 30.81% 1.17% 1951
Post-WWII Annual Returns: | |||
Year | S&P 500 Stocks | 3-month T.Bill | |
1946 | -8.43% | 0.38% | |
1947 | 5.20% | 0.57% | |
1948 | 5.70% | 1.02% | |
1949 | 18.30% | 1.10% | |
1950 | 30.81% | 1.17% | |
1951 | 23.68% | 1.48% | |
1952 | 18.15% | 1.67% | |
1953 | -1.21% | 1.89% | |
1954 | 52.56% | 0.96% | |
1955 | 32.60% | 1.66% | |
1956 | 7.44% | 2.56% | |
1957 | -10.46% | 3.23% | |
1958 | 43.72% | 1.78% | |
1959 | 12.06% | 3.26% | |
1960 | 0.34% | 3.05% | |
1961 | 26.64% | 2.27% | |
1962 | -8.81% | 2.78% | |
1963 | 22.61% | 3.11% | |
1964 | 16.42% | 3.51% | |
1965 | 12.40% | 3.90% | |
1966 | -9.97% | 4.84% | |
1967 | 23.80% | 4.33% | |
1968 | 10.81% | 5.26% | |
1969 | -8.24% | 6.56% | |
1970 | 3.56% | 6.69% | |
1971 | 14.22% | 4.54% | |
1972 | 18.76% | 3.95% | |
1973 | -14.31% | 6.73% | |
1974 | -25.90% | 7.78% | |
1975 | 37.00% | 5.99% | |
1976 | 23.83% | 4.97% | |
1977 | -6.98% | 5.13% | |
1978 | 6.51% | 6.93% | |
1979 | 18.52% | 9.94% | |
1980 | 31.74% | 11.22% | |
1981 | -4.70% | 14.30% | |
1982 | 20.42% | 11.01% | |
1983 | 22.34% | 8.45% | |
1984 | 6.15% | 9.61% | |
1985 | 31.24% | 7.49% | |
1986 | 18.49% | 6.04% | |
1987 | 5.81% | 5.72% | |
1988 | 16.54% | 6.45% | |
1989 | 31.48% | 8.11% | |
1990 | -3.06% | 7.55% | |
1991 | 30.23% | 5.61% | |
1992 | 7.49% | 3.41% | |
1993 | 9.97% | 2.98% | |
1994 | 1.33% | 3.99% | |
1995 | 37.20% | 5.52% | |
1996 | 23.82% | 5.02% | |
1997 | 31.86% | 5.05% | |
1998 | 28.34% | 4.73% | |
1999 | 20.89% | 4.51% | |
2000 | -9.03% | 5.76% | |
2001 | -11.85% | 3.67% | |
2002 | -21.97% | 1.66% | |
2003 | 28.36% | 1.03% | |
2004 | 10.74% | 1.23% | |
2005 | 4.83% | 3.01% | |
2006 | 15.61% | 4.68% | |
2007 | 5.48% | 4.64% | |
2008 | -36.55% | 1.59% | |
2009 | 25.94% | 0.14% | |
2010 | 14.82% | 0.13% | |
2011 | 2.10% | 0.03% | |
2012 | 15.89% | 0.05% | |
2013 | 32.15% | 0.07% | |
2014 | 13.52% | 0.05% | |
2015 | 1.36% | 0.21% | |
2016 | 11.74% | 0.51% |
We are given the information that Microthins stock price was $21 in December 2012, $29 in December 2013, $27 in December 2014, $20 in December 2015, and $26 in December 2016. It also pays annual dividend amounts varying from 2012 through 2016.
Let's assume you do the following transactions:
a) In December 2012: buy 30,000 Microthin shares;
b) In December 2013: collect the dividends ($0.39 per share) on your shares, and then sell 10,000 shares;
c) In December 2014: collect the dividends ($0.43 per share) on your remaining shares, and then buy another 15,000 shares;
d) In December 2015: collect the dividends ($0.50 per share) on your remaining shares, and then sell another 10,000 shares.
e) In December 2016: collect the dividends ($0.52 per share) on your remaining shares, and then sell all your remaining shares.
A) What should be the IRR during the "December 2012 December 2016" period for your Microthin stock investment?
B) The year-by-year annual returns after the World War II are provided on the Excel answer sheet, the tab Case 3. Use =AVERAGE function to compute the post-WWII average return for S&P stock market index (Rm) and for US risk-free T-bill (Rf), respectively. With such Rm and Rf amounts, and if Microthins stock beta = 1.25, what shall be the required return on Microthin stock (using CAPM)? Be careful, CAPM is for long-term stock market equilibrium, so you should NOT only use the short 2012-2016 four-year-average stock data only for CAPM purpose. Use the provided whole long-term period as CAPM data source.
C) Based on your answers to Q1 and Q2, is your Microthin stock investment over the "Dec 2012 Dec 2016"period good or bad (using NPV and IRR rules)?
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