probabilities play an essential role in decision-making, whether consciously or not. On any given day,

you mightfor exampleconsider the probability that it will rain or that there will be traffic on your

way to work. Even though in these cases you do not calculate the actual probability, as suggested by

Costello, Watts, and Fisher (2018) in your recommended readings this week, you make an estimate

using mechanisms that follow standard probability theory, but are subject to random error.

For this discussion, complete the following tasks:

1. Describe a real-life scenario in which you consider probabilities.

2. Discuss the importance of estimating probabilities in this example.